The Move that will shake up baseball

The champagne in Dallas is dry and the parade is over. On the Monday after the World Series the hot stove is already burning. However the attention is presently focused on two diametrically opposed stories. Who is going to pay Shohei Ohtani a crap load of money? On the flip side. Which franchises are going to start cheaping out (Milwaukee, Miami and even San Diego appear to be up)

The aforementioned franchises are going to hide behind numbers They are going to cite statistically based models. They will use buzzwords like “efficiency” and “asset or resource management”. Attention will also shift to so called “insider” information. Which are really just strategic leaks from powerful agents.

They will all ignore the move that is hiding in plain sight. Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies are going to do something big. This is not based on any sources. Just logic and a knowledge of history. Over the years Dombrowski has earned the moniker of “Dealer Dave” for the many splashy transactions he pulls off. I’m going to go with new alliterative name— Double Down Dave.

Dombrowski doesn’t retreat to numbers after a loss. He is pushing 70 and highly successful (two World Series). Old successful people don’t change. How do I know this? I’m old, I wish the success would follow, but I digress. As a Tigers fan, I know how Double Down Dave builds a team.

He gambled on one Scott Boras client with an injury history in Pudge Rodriguez. Give me another in Magglio Ordonez. He had one slugger in Miguel Cabrera with defensive concerns. I’ll take another in Prince Fielder and move Cabrera to third base. I have two Cy Young’s on my staff. I’ll bet the farm on David Price to get a third.

Double Down Dave doesn’t care about young prospects or rising payrolls. I think that is why he eventually gets fired. He wants big names, power hitters and power arms. It’s how he has built the Phillies. So after watching the the Rangers and their half billion dollar middle infield raise a trophy. What do you think Double Down is going to do?

I can hear your brain churning. If he likes all those above mentioned things. He is going after Ohtani. It’s one stop shopping. You are on the right scent. However there is a problem with that logic. I don’t think Ohtani wants to play there. Another problem with the Double Down strategy. Scan the free agency list after Ohtani. There is not a difference maker there to lavish money upon.

Here is where Double Down’s alter ego comes out. Patient “Dealer Dave” is going to make an appearance. If/when Ohtani leaves the Angels as expected. Where does that leave Mike Trout? Generally perceived as baseball’s best position player. Still having the largest overall contract in baseball history. A 426 million dollar package signed way back before the 2019 season.

By most accounts Trout is a low key, private, and loyal. This is admirable and should be lauded. That being said, at 32 years old. Does he want to spend what is left of his prime with a rudderless Angels franchise? As a private superstar not much is known about his mindset.

There is one small detail that sticks out like sore thumb. Trout is a South Jersey native who cheers for Philadelphia pro sports teams. With that knowledge. I don’t see how he could watch the last two playoffs and not want to be a part of that environment. Those crowds emanated a college football level of passion. He will never get that in Anaheim. That being said, 426 million dollars is a TON of money. Can Dombrowski really pull this off?

Here is how operation “A River Runs Through It” is going to go down. Dombrowski is going to stay in the background. They will leave Trout alone. However conspicuous articles will begin to appear about how they are content with their roster. They will stay out of the initial free agency sweepstakes because— this is the key…. They really like their farm system.

Bryce Harper will keep showing up for Eagles games and getting on camera. If he is really bold he might even invite Trout to come with him. He will more likely ask Trout to work out with him when he goes back to the west coast. He will casually mention how much he loves playing in Philly.

After Ohtani signs with the Dodgers or another team. The Phillies will still remain patient. They will not need to be aggressive. Mike Trout holds all the cards. He has a no trade clause. They will wait for Trout to ask for trade. He will list the teams he will accept a trade to. His agent will say he just wants to win. Accordingly he will list winning teams. That would be the Dodgers, the Rangers, and wait for it….the Phillies.

He knows full well the Angels won’t trade him across town. He also knows full well he is not getting traded within the Division. With that in mind. They might even throw the Braves and Diamondbacks in for good measure. The endgame however will always be the Phillies.

Now “Dealer Dave” and “Double Down Dave” will morph into one insatiable apex predator to seize its prey. The media will begin to report on Trout’s plight. The “Damian Lillard” treatment. The loyal superstar who just wants to win in the twilight of his career. The Angels will be put in a public relations box.

Can the Phillies afford Trout? Probably not. Does Dombrowski care? I really don’t think so. However if it becomes an impediment. Here are the financial gymnastics Dombrowski will pull off. Trout’s contract is huge. That being said he is already well into it. He has seven years left at approximately 250 million dollars. That’s gulp inducing. However it is smaller package than what they gave Bryce Harper. It’s even less than what that gave Trea Turner (inflation is everywhere)

Dombrowski will ask his owner. “If Mike Trout was a free agent right now, would we offer him a seven year 250 million dollar contract?” John Middleton would unequivocally say yes (Dombrowski has done this before) He will then start to lay it on thick. He will say we can let Aaron Nola walk as a free agent (16 million) and we are almost halfway to Trout’s yearly salary. Even if that doesn’t work. He has one more patient card to play. Once again Trout and his chosen trade partner have the leverage and media narrative.

They can ask the Angels to pay a portion of the salary for the first year or two. They just might do it. At this point Dombrowski shifts to the compassionate trade partner. I’m taking your centerfielder. I’ll give you mine. Here is Johan Rojas. A young playoff caliber ready made starter. Now the earlier positive “farm system” articles will pay off.

Beyond Rojas, the Phillies can offer Andrew Painter (#28 prospect according to MLB prospect pipeline) The Angels top pitching prospect who is not projected to make an impact until 2025. That is not on the Phillies timeline. They can throw in their best long term prospect in 19 year old Justin Crawford (#77) They can finish it off with Carlos De La Cruz. A 6-8 corner outfield prospect who is ready to play next season and blocked in Philadelphia.

It’s not a “blow your socks off” package. However the Angels can add two top 100 prospects to a depleted farm system. They can claim they have their outfield of the future. They can also tout an intriguing young core with Rojas, Zach Neto, and Nolan Schanuel. More importantly they will have a somewhat clear payroll in the second largest media market. They have the ability to rebuild quickly if they want to. Even more importantly, with Trout’s supposed leverage. This might be the best they can do.

Does it work for the Phillies? Can they afford it long term? One more time, I don’t think Dave Dombrowski really cares. It’s the biggest name he can feasibly get. For that reason alone. Double Down Dave is going to do it. In this “Moneyball” era. I am here for it. Put the best players out on the field and let them grip it and rip it. The “nerds” have long touted Trout’s WAR brilliance. Let’s put him on big stage in front of an adoring passionate home crowd and see it.