MHSAA Bracketology: Division I Outlook

And then there was one…. I’ll wind down this four part series analyzing the fast approaching state tournament. Closing with the most difficult division to forecast. The big boys of Division I. No bias here, just simple math. Larger enrollments, means more good players, and better teams, In a one and done tournament, that makes this division challenging. So be forewarned, after getting a little chalky in the smaller divisions. I’m going to go a little off the board. That’s not to be provocative or get clicks. I believe in these picks or I wouldn’t put them out there. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round.

Disclaimer: This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me

Quarterfinal #4 @ Calihan Hall
Orchard Lake St Mary’s vs Troy

I’m going to use some convoluted logic to explain this pick. There are two things I have difficulty seeing. I don’t see how a 20-1 team as talented and deep as St Mary’s does not make it the Breslin Center. That being said, I can’t see a team as equally talented as Brother Rice losing to St. Mary’s four times in one season. If the favorites hold serve, that would be the most likely matchup. So what to do with this dilemma?

I’m going to go with the upset and take Troy. I am well aware that geographic distance doesn’t play as much of a role in such a densely populated area. However I’m intrigued by the fact that the Colts could reach this round without having to leave their school district. The opening round will be across town at Troy Athens. While the regional will be on their home court. They have an experienced head coach in Gary Fralik and an electric point guard in junior Mason Parker. He is complemented by underrated seniors Chase Kuiper and Jon Whiteside. After dropping their opener in overtime, they have not lost since then. A team not used to losing, with good guards, senior leadership, AND virtually playing all their games at home— that’s a lot to like. With the knowledge of how good Brother Rice, Port Huron Northern, and Utica are. I’m going to roll the dice and stick with Troy.

Pick: Troy’s Cinderella run will end here. St. Mary’s just has too much depth and top level talent

Quarterfinal #2 @ Holt
East Lansing vs Saline

On the top line, the Trojans of East Lansing have drawn a difficult road. First they have to get out of difficult district hosted by a very good Mason squad. The regional is at Kalamazoo Central. They would most likely have to play a Lansing Waverly squad that pushed them twice in the regular season. For what it’s worth. I think Portage Central will break up the hegemony Kalamazoo Central has at bottom of this region. While Portage Central is tough. Not having to play the Maroon Giants on their home court in the regional is a bit of a break. As you can tell from the pick. Despite being a young team, East Lansing will get through this difficult road and move onto the quarterfinals.

On the bottom line, I have been pretty resolute all year that this was Ann Arbor Huron’s spot. However it’s is difficult to overlook the recent run sophomore Jonathan Sanderson has been on at Saline. While the River Rats (great mascot) split with Saline in the regular season. I’m not sure Huron can make it to third contest. To start things off. They have to get out of tough district against an Ann Arbor Pioneer squad that beat them twice in the regular season. After that, Detroit Catholic Central would most likely be waiting in the regional semifinals. I think Huron’s Macari Moore is one of the more underrated juniors in the state. However I’m going to go with the Shamrocks and their senior duo of TJ Nadeau and Uchenna Amene. As far as the final. Will the winner of Huron and Detroit CC will have enough left in the tank to slow down Sanderson? That Tuesday to Thursday turnaround is quick. I’m going with a very young Saline unit to surprise some and move onto the quarterfinals.

Pick: East Lansing has enough perimeter depth and length to slow down Sanderson. The Trojans of East Lansing will take the shortest road trip possible to the Breslin Center

Quarterfinal #1 @ Greenville
Muskegon vs Rockford

Despite splitting with crosstown rival Reeths-Puffer in the regular season. I feel pretty good about penciling in the Big Reds here. If they get past the Rockets we should get a gridiron rematch with Saginaw Heritage in the regional semifinals. While Tyler Ode and company are good enough to do it. Muskegon’s physicality will be too much for Heritage’s young frontline. A long road trip to Gaylord to take on Cadillac will not be fun either. Cadillac is coming off back-to-back quarterfinal appearances in Division II. They are tough, but in their first year in the division, They don’t have the firepower to beat Muskegon.

As far as the bottom line— goodness. Who is coming out of the cavalcade of good teams? I have a hard enough picking the winner of district #7, let alone the regional. I’m not going to list them all, but I think there are eight, that’s right EIGHT teams capable of wining the regional hosted by East Kentwood. I said it at the beginning. I would try to be brief, so buckle up…. In 3-2-1….No one is hotter than Byron Center and they host their district— they advance to the regional. However they will face a bit of an emotional comedown in the semifinals. I’m picking an upset by a seven loss Forest Hills Central squad who has been playing everyone tough of late. On the other side. If Byron Center is the hottest team, Rockford is a close second after they got healthy. The Rams sneak past Zeeland West in the regional semifinals. Then Rockford moves onto the quarterfinals by beating an upset minded Forest Hills Central. Whew— I can’t believe I just left out East Kentwood, Grand Rapids Northview, Hudsonville, and Grandville. That’s why it’s called March Madness.

Pick: After long road trips to Ithaca and Gaylord. Muskegon will be happy to be playing closer to home. These gridiron powers will probably grind this one into a rock fight. In that type of matchup. Muskegon’s depth on the frontline will prevail. The Big Reds head back to the Breslin Center for a second consecutive year

Quarterfinal #3 @ Calihan Hall
Dearborn vs North Farmington

As much ink as I just spilled on grouping above. This is the pod of death in the bracket. Mercy— where to start? How about the defending champions? Not enough can be written about the machine Steve Hall is building at Cass Tech. They host the regional in their gym, so they should be the presumptive favorites right? Look at that district though. The host squad Detroit King and a Grosse Pointe South unit that just defeated Warren Lincoln? That is tough. Are Dearborn and their 22-0 record really going to win a district against River Rogue on the Panther’s home court? Then follow that up by winning a regional in Cass Tech’s gym? That is tough too. That’s a lot questions— let’s answer them. I DON’T think Dearborn can beat Cass at Cass. However I’m going to go with the upset and pick King in districts. That opens up the regional quite a bit. I DO think Dearborn is good enough to win at River Rogue. Dearborn defeats King and Woodhaven to take home the regionals.

The top line was the opening act. The bottom line is going to be the bloodbath. Using similar logic to what I used above. I wonder if the Catholic League powers are going to have anything left after playing each other in the regional semifinals? Additionally UD-Jesuit has to get by Detroit Renaissance to get there first. Due to their slightly easier path. I’m going to lean towards a Warren De La Salle squad who has battled through injuries and adversity this year. However, will they have enough left in the tank to take down North Farmington? I don’t think so. I like the senior core of the Raiders. Landon Williams (Niagara) Tyler Spratt (Cleveland St) and 6-7 Dylan Smith are going to be a tough out.

Pick: I am well aware the KLAA is not the Catholic League or OK Red. However it is a deep league that has prepared Belleville for deep runs in the past. There are next level college players in Wayne Memorial and Fordson. To go through that gauntlet unscathed with a first year head coach is very impressive. They were aggressive out of conference as well. While I’m not sure who their star is, or if they have any true next level players. They are best TEAM I have seen this year. They defend hard and put constant pressure on the basket. Dearborn’s depth gives them the edge against North Farmington and they advance to the semifinals.

Semifinal #1
Orchard Lake St Mary’s vs East Lansing

It’s tempting to pick the literal hometown school here. However if you watched their regular season matchup at the 2K24 classic. You know a lot has to go right for East Lansing to win this one. I intentionally haven’t written much about St Mary’s up until this point. If you really dig into their schedule. They are putting together one of the more impressive seasons we have seen in a while. Trey McKenney (pictured) is an elite national recruit. Sherod Barnes is playing outstanding at the point. Daniel Smythe is one of best shooters in the state. There was a lot of off court/eligibility noise that derailed this team last year. They still ended up at the Breslin Center. Without it this year, you are seeing an elite team. If Cameron Hutson and Jayce Branson can slow down McKenney and some outside shots start falling— well anything can happen. But I am picking St Mary’s.

Semifinal #2
Muskegon vs Dearborn

I wrote about how impressive Dearborn is as a team. Well Keith Guy and Muskegon have been doing the team defense/no star thing for going on a decade. They have plenty of size led by Lake Superior St commit Terrence Davis. They have a future next level guard in sophomore James Martin. The Big Reds will too much for Dearborn. For the second straight year. Muskegon advances to the finals.

The Final

A rematch from last year’s semifinal which was won by Muskegon. Since that time a handful of Big Reds have also won a football state championship. They will have the size, bodies, and fouls to throw at McKenney. They slowed him last year. I’m a sportswriter with history degree. It’s tempting to lean into the story and pick Muskegon on the 10th anniversary of their last state championship. But I’m not going to take the plunge.

I just can’t past that schedule. Without knowing much about the Toledo area schools now in the Catholic League. There aren’t any cupcakes in there. St Mary’s took on everyone and has a 20-1 record to show for it. Trey McKenney and company are going to raise their first banner since 2000.