Simplifying John Calipari

As the title implies. This is going to be a basic, unemotional, and statistical look at Kentucky’s current dilemma with John Calipari. Why is it a dilemma? The 65 year old head coach has impeccable record of success. However he inhabits a job with a rabid fan base with a higher standard of what they deem to be success. I’m not going to do a psychological deep dive here. As you will see, that is a part of the problem. But follow me for a moment as that element is an ingredient for this current bitter tasting Southern stew.

Passionate fan bases are passionate for a reason. They think their analyses and opinion actually matter. I am not trying to be harsh or provocative— just realistic. Honestly, in most instances. They are correct in their self-important assessment. It’s a tautologous argument that is self explanatory. If they didn’t think their opinions mattered as fans. They would be apathetic and disinterested. Consequently there is current cottage industry dissecting what is wrong with Calipari and Kentucky basketball.

Just do a scan of social media and message boards (they are still big in Kentucky) Everyone within Big Blue Nation has opinion. To their credit, for the most part they often seem nuanced and thought out. Let’s briefly run through the greatest hits.

“The evolution of the modern game has passed him by.” Or the adjacent gripe that “NIL and the transfer portal has changed the game too much.” However they almost all universally circle the bases before ending up in near this home plate.

“Calipari needs to stop worrying about getting players to the NBA and focus on winning games on the court”

This is where I draw the line. If, and that is BIG IF. They move on from Cal. I would love to see a new head coach navigate that question at the introductory press conference. Do you think he is going to give an answer like…

“Well Lexington, I’m going to focus on the on-court product. If player wants to know how I’m going to get them to the next level. I’m crossing him off the recruiting board. We are out of this one-and-done NBA factory business”

No coach is going to say that because it’s a completely asinine statement. It also underscores a fact that BOTH Calipari and the fanbase want to ignore. Calipari just doesn’t do that anymore. Kentucky is no longer a NBA star making factory. It is an unassailable truth. Kentucky is not losing because of scheme, off court factors, or anything else someone can come up with.

The bottom line is if a top pick caliber prospect like John Wall, Antony Davis, or even Karl Anthony Towns were to graduate now— they are not picking Kentucky. Furthermore if there is an under the radar gem like Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to be found. They are not going to develop at Kentucky. Don’t believe me? Using the 2019 recruiting class as a starting point, the record is stark and clear.

If you think I’m cherry picking classes to prove my point. That is not the case. These are the classes that correspond to the recent tournament swoon the message boards love to cite. Kentucky has one NCAA tournament victory in the last five years. Here are the reason why.

**National rankings of players are in parentheses and sourced from 247 sports**

2019

Class: Tyrese Maxey (#10), Kalil Whitney (#11), Keion Brooks (#14), Johnny Juzang (#31), Dontaie Allen (#99)

Misses– Well at least Calipari lost Anthony Edwards to a fellow blue blooded program—well not exactly. Edwards stayed within conference and went to Georgia. Simply put, THIS is the type of player Calipari used to always get. You can’t lose him to Georgia. I’ll give him a pass on the unique recruitments of the other star players in the class (LaMelo Ball etc)

Overview: A pretty bleak straightforward start to the thesis. One NBA pick in Maxey (#21) and that’s it. While Maxey just made his first all star team. He’s not exactly keeping the Sixers afloat with Joel Embiid’s injury. The rest of class made minimal contributions before transferring.

2020

Class: Brandon Boston Jr (#6) Terrence Clarke (#10), Isaiah Jackson (#34), Devin Askew (#37), Lance Ware (#44), Cam’ron Fletcher (#88)

Misses: Unlike the one man Edwards grouping. There are quite a few misses here. Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley would have been tough to get with the familial connections to their staffs. But that doesn’t explain why players like Scottie Barnes and Jalen Suggs did not come to Kentucky. Or even the G-League duo of Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga. That is a lot top level Kentucky-ish players spurning Lexington.

Overview: COVID was rough— but everyone dealt with it. This was a bigger whiff than the 2019 class. One first round pick, Jackson at uncharacteristically low #22. I’m not going to say anything negative about Terrence Clarke. Boston disappointed and the rest transferred. This was reflected by the on-court product. It was seen as the #1 class in the country, but it didn’t come close to playing like it.

2021

Class: Shaedon Sharpe (#3), Daimion Collins (#14), TyTy Washington (#20), Bryce Hopkins (#44)

Misses: Where to start? How about Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith? You might have heard of them. Calipari couldn’t get one of the top three picks in the draft?

Overview: Another major whiff of a class. Sharpe doesn’t count. He never played for the team. TyTy Washington snuck into the end of the first round at #29, but has been nondescript thus far at both the college and pro levels. Collins dealt with tragedy in his time at Kentucky and only started two games before transferring. Hopkins did as well. If you want to give Calipari credit for using the transfer portal during this period. You do you… none of the players impacted massive tournament success, nor have they made an impact at the next level.

2022

Class: Cason Wallace (#5), Chris Livingston (#16) Ugonna Onyenso (#39), Adou Thiero (#138)

Misses: N/A Honestly too early to tell. No one has really popped at the next level.

Overview: Wallace is off to a good start at Oklahoma City. However it is hard to see him becoming a primary option on that squad. Livingston left after one year. The rest of class is still in the program. I guess that is technically an improvement from prior classes.

2023

Class: Justin Edwards (#3), Aaron Bradshaw (#5), DJ Wagner (#6), Rob Dillingham (#21) Reed Shepard (#79), Jordan Burks (#176), Joey Hart (#189)

Misses: N/A once again too early.

Overview: You can’t argue with the numbers. This was unequivocally the top class in the nation. This was supposed to be the class that allowed Calipari to get his mojo back. As we have just seen, that did not happen. They were inconsistent all year. They only earned a three seed and were promptly upset in the first round. For what it’s worth. The lower regarded players played better. If you want to get him credit for Reed Shepard. Fine— but Shepard was always coming to Kentucky. You could counter with the fact that there are lottery picks on this roster. I’ll raise you with the fact that this one of the weakest drafts in recent history.

Conclusion

In the beginning, this summation is going to sound like a defense of Calipari. It is not. John Calipari is a “good” coach. You don’t have his sustained thirty years of success without a rudimentary knowledge of the game of basketball. To argue that he doesn’t know how to “beat a zone” or coach defense is silly. The truth is much simpler than what most of Big Blue Nation wants to accept.

John Calipari is no different than most men struggling to do their job in their mid-60’s. He no longer connects with the younger generation of players. I’ll end with these anecdotes. I work in the recruiting ecosystem. The top coaches have a presence about them. You know when they are at an event. Tom Izzo still has it. Juwan Howard definitely had it, and I could go down the list.

Two summers ago I stood directly next to Jim Boeheim for an entire session at an AAU event. I had no clue until I heard his distinctive voice announce to his assistant that he is was leaving. Nobody cared that he was there. One year later he and his eleven hundred wins were out at Syracuse.

This past year I attended an in-season event the in Indiana. I sat on press row underneath the basket. I clearly saw Kentucky assistant Ron Coleman. The gym was buzzing due to the presence of Carmelo Anthony watching his son. I didn’t realize until I got back to my hotel room that Calipari was even there. I had to see it on social media. I was sitting probably twenty feet away from him.

You know who else seemingly didn’t recognize he was there. A young man named VJ Edgecombe. Kentucky went two deep in the middle of the season for the #4 player in the nation. A short time later, Edgecombe signed with Baylor. Cooper Flagg is preparing to take the basketball world by storm in a Duke jersey. Rutgers— that’s right Rutgers has two top 5 recruits from regions Calipari used to own.

Calipari is losing because he no longer gets the best players. Showing up at the draft and focusing on all of his NBA all stars is simply the emperor trying to distract his citizens from the fact that that he has clothes. For the most part, they are falling for it. What is the path forward for Kentucky? It is simple. It is not a coach. His name is AJ Dybansta.

If you keep Calipari, you tell him he needs to get the top player in the 2025 class. If Dybansta signs with Auburn. You fire Calipari and hire Bruce Pearl. If he signs with USC or UCONN you go after Andy Enfield and Dan Hurley respectively. If Kentucky wants to be the PLACE again. You need to the to get the PLAYERS.

You want a no star defensive system. Go hire Tony Bennett or Kelvin Sampson. I think we all know how that would end. I mentioned in the beginning this was going to be a simple statistical analysis. Here you go.

5 years + 3 first round picks + 1 All Star Appearance = 1 Tournament win

Simple as that.