So Long Skubal….
If you are a follower of this space. You know this writer longs for the good ole days of the Mike Illitch “win at all costs” pocketbook. It was a welcoming thought to know that your team might not win it all. But they were going empty out all of their bullets in terms of financial resources.
As fans are well aware, that era is over. For better or worse the Tigers are a statistically driven moneyball franchise. They might have been late to the party. But they are behaving like all the cool kids in the “mid market” lunch table. Valuing advanced math over the brute simplicity of the Dave Dombrowski school of player evaluation. Which would be— pay a lot of money to players who hit the ball really far and throw it really fast. That school of thought is working out pretty well for the Phillies right now, but I digress.
What the Tigers have at the moment is an anonymously named head of baseball operations in Scott Harris. While he doesn’t say much. He presented the thesis of this little piece back in late May. When asked when the Tigers would be able to spend and increase the payroll. He delivered this succinct and very direct response.
“We’re not quite there yet as far as spending at that level because we need to build the foundation of this team to put us in a position to supplement it with free agent signings in the upcoming winters.”
The optimist would point to the “quite” portion of the quote and see hope. Since that statement the Tigers have put together a run of quality play. However they are still in fourth place and a gulp inducing 11 games out of their own division. Yes the Wild Card is always there. Though I wouldn’t call a team that is five games out of an expanded field “playoff caliber.”
As much as I don’t like it. Harris is right. This team is not there yet. Which is why the the Tigers need to trade their best asset— presumptive Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The reasons are three fold are fairly straightforward when you dig into the numbers and history.
1. The Pitching Development Curve
Tarik Skubal’s history is testament to patience and the vagaries of pitching development. As a 9th round pick, he was not initially expected to lead a Detroit pitching resurgence. That was supposed to fall to the “M&M” boys. High first round picks Casey Mize and Matt Manning. To say that hasn’t happened would be an understatement.
Due to injuries (we’ll return to this shortly) and general development. Skubal is just now reaching his peak performance at the ripe old age of 27. I wouldn’t call that young. He has developed the fastest cutter in baseball (95.4 mph) How do I know he developed that? Because he wouldn’t have been 9th round pick out tiny Seattle University (his only Division 1 offer) if he had the fastest cutter in all of baseball in his early twenties.
Where did this development come from? Have the Tigers perfected some unique way of molding unheralded pitchers. Once again the results of Mize, Manning, and company scream they have not. Baseball is a fickle sport of literal inches. Skubal could have lowered his arm angle ever so slightly. He could adjusted where he stands on the rubber. It could be a myriad of factors that us baseball peons do not understand.
The point being, Skubal’s excellence could go just as quickly as it came. I’m old enough to remember when Ubaldo Jiménez started an All Star game (2010 kids, look it up) Jimenez is still just 40 and has already been out of the league seven… that’s right seven years. No injuries just ineffective. We could play the random star pitcher name game forever (Tim Lincecum anyone?)
The Tigers have no definitive way of knowing if this is what Skubal will be. What do they know? They know have a dominant left handed starting pitcher on a manageable salary for the next two years. That is an extremely valuable trade chip. Furthermore, due to the two years of team control, said value will never be higher than it is right now. Why is that….?
2. The Boras Factor
Cue the Darth Vader entrance music. Skubal is represented by super agent Scott Boras. Why does this matter? Boras operates in a zero sum game. His goal is to attain maximum value for his clients at the expense of their employer. That’s it. For the record, that is his job. Up until last summer he was darn good at it.
Why is this salient to Skubal and his current value? It means Boras almost always takes his clients to free agency. That’s how you extract the most value. Simple market economics. So let’s say Skubal continues to perform at an elite status this year. Can the Tigers sign him to a contract extension? Boras’ established precedent says no. Consequently if the Tigers decide trade him in the offseason will they get good value? Possibly— but the team inheriting Skubal would face the same free agency dilemma. No one is going to give up a surplus of prospects for a pitcher deemed a rental.
Well then, why don’t the Tigers just sign him as a free agent? Once again, that sounds good on paper. But that doesn’t really fit the Boras playbook. If Skubal becomes a multiple time Cy Young winner, he will play himself out of the Tigers price range. To simplify it for Tigers fans who don’t geek out on the business of baseball. Max Scherzer was a Scott Boras client. Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander were not. Who stayed, and who left?
3. Tarik Skubal’s injury History
If Boras is a looming dark presence in this process. No one wants to talk about the other elephant in the room. South of the age of thirty. Skubal already has a Tommy John and Flexor Tendon surgery on the resume of his golden left arm. Without turning this into a medical journey entry— that’s not good.
I’m one of 53,000 American’s who has had “elbow replacement surgery”. Hips and knees are common. As the numbers show, elbows are not. It’s been explained to me that this is due to intricacies and fragile nature of the joint. Consequently, not only do I worry about Skubal’s durability. I’m not convinced Shohei Ohtani is going to pitch again after his second major elbow surgery.
Skubal’s medical chart reads similarly. Other teams are surely aware of this. So why would they make the trade? The Dodgers and Orioles of the world are not eleven games back in their division races. They justifiably value Skubal higher than the Tigers should at the moment.
Which brings us right back to the quote that started it all…
Conclusion
I’ll go on one more personal detour before ending back on the aforementioned quote. My daughter recently got her drivers license and my son started working his first summer job at age 14. Accordingly as he has started to bring home paychecks for the first time in his life. He wants to go look for a car.
I patiently explain to him, while he is free to do that. What is the point of starting right now? If he somehow finds a car and actually buys it. What purpose does it serve? It’s just going to sit in the driveway and collect rust for two years while he waits to get his license. The car has zero current utility to his life.
I shouldn’t have to connect the dots at this point. Tarik Skubal is the Tiger’s shiny new car. You can’t deny the value. He has the ability to anchor a rotation and impact a playoff series. However, whether the fans like it or not. The Tigers simply do not need that right now.
As Scott Harris he clearly stated in plain English — “we are not quite there yet.” No double speak or empty verbiage. Just the facts. I don’t like it, but the Tigers are out of the silly contract business. They are in now in the “value” business, Flipping Skubal for three prospects is good value.
If one of them hits, you have won the trade. If two them work out, you should exit the stadium and head down to the Greektown Casino. Roll the dice at the prospect craps table. With Boras looming you are probably going to lose him for nothing. The value will never be higher than the present moment.
The fanbase will not like it. The locker room will give some spicy quotes for a day or two. However as Baltimore and Milwaukee have shown of late. That does not impact the decision making of the stat heads that are the current gatekeepers of the game. More often than not, they are right. That is why they keep getting jobs.
So pick up the phone Scott Harris and have at it. This might be your last chance. You can’t be “not quite there yet” too much longer.
