The Tigers Next Step
On July 27th of this year some idiot pontificated that the Tigers season was over and they needed take their medicine, swallow hard, and trade Tarik Skubal. Wait… checks note… that idiot was me.
If you don’t believe me, it’s still on the front page of this very site you are currently reading. So… I can’t really get out of this one. The Tigers late season run made me look quite foolish. Now with nearly all credibility gone. I am going to attempt to save face.
The premise of that article was centered around this late May quote from the Tigers Head of Baseball Operation Scott Harris.
“We’re not quite there yet as far as spending at that level because we need to build the foundation of this team to put us in a position to supplement it with free agent signings in the upcoming winters.”
Well…if the Tigers weren’t quite there in late May. Are they quite there when they are one game away from a league championship series? If owner Chris Ilitch’s and Harris’ answers are no. Both ends of that response are quite damming.
If they are correct in not making an increase financial commitment this upcoming offseason. Then this run that galvanized a stagnant fanbase was a just a “fluke”. If they make a minimal commitment and the Tigers are just “good” or even make the playoffs once again. That would be the worst case scenario.
That would simply say that ownership is not willing to make the commitments necessary to get this core over the hump. Scott Harris painted himself into a bit of corner with the above quote. With a rabid and re energized fanbase. They simply can’t just run it back.
That being said the frugally minded element of the fanbase (not sure who that is) has two things working in its favor. First and foremost are cold hard economics. I’m not a lawyer or investment banker. I won’t try to break this down. However, lost in the euphoria of the Tigers sweeping the Astros was this little nugget.
Translation…. the main driver of any baseball team’s revenue— local television dollars are in the hands of a bankruptcy judge. Whatever your interpretation of the above rigamarole is… It’s not ideal. Beyond that bleak outlook. If the Tigers wanted to open up the checkbook. Outside of Juan Soto, this is not a deep free agent class. So, what’s a poor boy (team) to do?
The answer is get really creative and think outside the box. I will reiterate. The Tigers can’t just run it back. Short of winning a World Series. The end of result is simply not palatable. In spite of the economic uncertainty, you have to up the financial commitment.
So let me channel my inner Connor Stallions and present a three step manifesto for the Tigers pivotal upcoming offseason. It will start in place you would not expect.
1. The Javier Baez Conundrum
Let’s now destroy any credibility I have left. I liked the Javier Baez signing. The resume was impressive and unassailable. I thought it would work. It has failed so miserably he cannot come back to this team. The Tigers still owe him close to $80 million dollars over the next three years. No one is going to trade for the aging, embattled, and injured shortstop. The Tigers can’t feasibly release him. What to do? The theme of this piece is to get creative and bold.
The solution isn’t that bold. It’s been done many times before. By the Tigers nonetheless. Call it the Prince Fielder treatment. You pay to make Baez go away. In the Fielder trade, the Tigers got back an Ian Kinsler who had overstayed his time with the Rangers. That worked out pretty well for the Tigers. Get that thought out of your head. They aren’t getting anything of value back for Baez.
What Tigers need is a reckless and rich owner who doesn’t care about money. In 2024 and for the foreseeable future. That answer to that question is the New York Mets and Steve Cohen. It just so happens the Mets might have a hole at second base. It just so happens the man who really runs the Mets is shortstop Fransisco Lindor. Does he vouch for his double play partner on the Puerto Rican national baseball team? Baez has already played there. That might not be a good thing. Put it all together, there are a lot of dots here. Are the Tigers willing to open their wallet and connect them. It would completely clear their long term payroll. I think Cohen is crazy and rich enough to add a little infield depth for $10 million a year. That would require the Tigers to cover about 60 percent of his salary each year. Not great, but not a fatal budget breaking move either.
I hope that boldness works. Because I’m not a fan of the creative part. What if you have to include something to get rid of Báez? Despite their success. The Tigers have a litany of highly drafted prospects who do not look (right now) like they are going to pan out. You could start with adding Daniel Cabrera to the package. You could begrudgingly include Matt Manning. But if the Mets look at their Pete Alonso sized first base hole and ask for Spencer Torkelson. While I think it would get the deal done. That would be tough. At that point, Scott Harris should call his old employers with the Giants and Cubs and see if they are interested in Baez and under what terms.
I REALLY don’t want to include Torkelson. However they didn’t really need him this year. They will need more offense from a premium position going forward, and he still has some value. I would only consider it if I thought the next step was possible. That step would be….
2. The Skubal (or Boras) Of it All
Extend and lock up the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. Last summer or even a few months ago I would have said this was impossible because of one man. Cue the music… super agent and the resident Darth Vader of baseball— Scott Boras. However a funny thing happened on the way to a free agency bonanza last summer
Boras’ strategy of holding out to the end and refusing to extend his clients simply didn’t work. The “Boras Four” of Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, and Jordan Montgomery all had to take below value one year “pillow” contracts. There is an MVP, a Cy Young, and a Golden Glove winner in that group. The fallout was swift and dramatic. Montgomery just straight up fired Boras. However I’m more concerned with a move that didn’t get as much attention.
Boras recently negotiated a six year $151 million extension with the Giants for Matt Chapman. Boras almost never extends his clients. That’s also in baseball terms a fairly reasonable extension. This came on the heels of similar extension for an another Boras client Jose Altuve. The times they are a changing in Boras land,
Which leads us back to Tarik Skubal. Who in case you didn’t figure it out already— is a Boras client. If you’re Skubal, you’ve already had one Tommy John surgery. Your value could plummet overnight with one wrong pitch. You only made $2.65 million dollars this year and you are still two years away from free agency.
If the Tigers aggressively come in below Gerrit Cole’s money, but above let’s say above Carlos Rodon at six years $200 million. Does Skubal consider it? I think he might. Would the Tigers? If they have a completely clear payroll they should. They have carried a $30 million player (or two) on their payroll for over decade. When you look at the dearth of quality free agents in this years class, who would you rather spend the money on?
It would send a message to both the fanbase and the clubhouse that the Tigers are serious about building a winner. That might be the most important part of this transaction. However as history has more often shown. What if Skubal doesn’t take it?
3. Spend Money Wisely
If Skubal turns down $200 million plus. He’s shooting for Gerrit Cole money. The Tigers probably can’t swim in those waters anymore. They need to protect themselves long term. Here is where Boras comes in again. Through the Skubal offer, he would be well aware the Tigers are willing spend on the RIGHT player. Stay away from Bellinger, Montgomery and company. Enter Blake Snell, a two time Cy Young award winner in his early thirties, without a history of arm trouble….and a Boras client.
I wouldn’t offer him Skubal’s deal, but would five years and $175 million get it done? He settled for $62 million last offseason. Snell is used to the bullpen “chaos” theory the Tigers are currently employing. He would also provide some protection as a possible lefty ace if or when Skubal departs.
Or if you believe the three M’s (Manning, Mize, and Montero) can develop into a pitching staff. You could go for a bat. Remember that rare $151 extension signed by Matt Chapman mentioned above. That is important because it essentially set the floor for Astros free agent third baseman Alex Bregman (Boras client again) You can’t ignore his obvious long term connection with Tigers manager AJ Hinch.
If Hinch says Bregman is worth the investment, and Boras wants to play ball. You have to consider bumping up to the $200 million range. Yes it would block Jace Jung. However, I’m sure the platoon happy Tigers could figure out some type of machination. Especially if first base might be open.
Conclusion
I did my best Monty Hall and gave the Tigers three doors to choose from (look it up kids) There is no door four. All three doors involve spending some money. There is always risk associated with spending money. Skubal or Snell could get hurt. Bregman could turn into Anthony Rendon. That is just the nature of sports and risk.
Returning to Scott Harris’ late May quote. Now is the time to “supplement this roster with free agent signings”. Those are his words not mine. If Chris Ilitch doesn’t agree. He makes his front office look pretty bad. He doesn’t need to go through all THREE doors. But I would least knock on them. Gauge the interest.
If he doesn’t think the finances will even allow that effort. I guess you can just take a drive through downtown Detroit. I bet Dan Gilbert or Mat Ishbia would beg to differ. They are clearly invested in a Downtown Detroit revitalization. While Ilitch Family has made plenty of investments as well. Now is the chance for the next generation to join this triumvirate.
