Making The Matas Case

Much ink is going to be spilled in the next few months about how bad the 2024 NBA Draft is going to be. You will hear it compared to the 2013 class which featured Anthony Bennett as the #1 pick. Yes, it doesn’t get much more bleak than that at the top spot (Michael Olawkandi would like a word)

That being said, the 2013 draft also featured Rudy Gobert (#27), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#8) CJ McCollum (#9), and some guy you might have heard of named Giannis Antetokounmpo (#15) The lesson being, allegedly “bad” drafts can produce good and even sometimes generational players.

Speaking of bad. There is no nice way to say it. That is the only way you can really describe the Detroit Pistons. Bad performance with corresponding bad luck. For the second straight year the highest draft lottery odds produced lowest possible pick. The fan base oscillates from restless to hostile apathy. Just like the top of the draft, this is a bleak organizational outlook. How do you improve it? There is really only one way. You roll the dice like Utah and Milwaukee did over a decade ago and go get the best player in the draft. Enter the player pictured above….Matas Buzelis.

Let’s be clear Buzelis is not a roll of the dice in the vein of Antetokounmpo. He is known commodity to hard core hoop fans. However, like most players in this star devoid class. I would say he is a bit of an unknown to most casuals. If that is you, I’ll do my best to get you caught up in the next few paragraphs.

I’m not going to pretend to be an established long time draft expert. However I do get paid to evaluate players for various scouting services. Primarily in the Great Lakes region. However you regard that vocation. I see a lot of players from this talent rich area. That includes current prospects such as Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, and Cam Christie. In past years I have been able to watch players like Jarace Walker, Grady Dick, and Kobe Bufkin. During the bizarre COVID impacted summer of 2020. I even got to see future #1 overall pick Paolo Banchero up close and personal (only parents and media got into most events that summer)

The sheer force and brute physicality of Banchero is hard to top. However hands down, the most skilled and dynamic player I have seen is this time frame is Buzelis. For the uninitiated. Despite what the name name might belie. This is not a European player unfamiliar to American basketball.

Born and raised in suburban Chicago to Lithuanian parents who both played professionally overseas. Buzelis’ late blooming journey is similar to another Windy City legend, Anthony Davis. An unknown and undeveloped JV player at a suburban high school. He transferred to prep powerhouse Brewster Academy after the pandemic severely curtailed the start of his sophomore season. To say he blossomed in New England would be unselling the term. Buzelis’ game and frame took off in meteoric proportions.

In the summer of 2021 I covered both of his AAU teams in multiple tournaments. He was playing with the famed EYBL program the Mac Irvin Fire. They were an impressive group. However by chance, Buzelis was not at the tourneys I attended. When I raved and inquired about the current players on the court. Experienced scouts and Chicago residents would lower their voice and speak in almost hushed and reverential tones.

“Wait until you see what this Buzelis kid has turned into”

I put it in the memory bank. When I covered his former team Full Package. I thought I might get a different picture. Perhaps a bit more spiteful as this was team he had left. Nope, they were even more effusive. Once again, it was as if people were guarding this precious state secret.

The secret didn’t last much longer. A skill set like this is going to attract attention. After bursting onto to the national scene. He eventually transferred to Kanas prep powerhouse Sunrise Christian Academy for his senior year and was on his way to the professional ranks with the G League Ignite.

He is presently being mocked to the Detroit Pistons by most draft publications. Now that you are caught up on the journey. Let’s look at his game, why he is being slated for Detroit, and lastly his fit with the franchise.

The Game

I won’t overcomplicate things. In an ode to his original AAU squad. Buzelis has the “full package”. Long billed as a 6-10 point guard. He came in a little short of that standard at the recent draft combine. Measuring just shy of 6-9 without shoes. I will never understand the “without shoes” portion of the measurements. Nobody plays basketball barefoot but I digress.

He also had a sub 7 foot wingspan (6-10) which was also moderately surprising from observing his lanky frame. That being said, a 6-9 guard with a wingspan larger than his height is impressive and positionally rare. However he really popped in the athletic testing portion. Showed the ability the play well above the rim with eye opening 38 inch vertical leap. More than just a high riser though.

He showed elite lateral quickness with 10.73 pro lane drill time. That was sixth highest time for all participants in the camp. If you don’t follow the draft closely. That italics means something this year. As the NBA is mandating participation from all prospects and not allowing players to sit out. Simply put, within this rarefied category of athletes at the camp. This is an elite athlete

On the top of the athleticism. Has a diverse and mature skill set. We’ll return to this term a little later. But I would label him “dynamic connective playmaker”. The dynamism comes from measurements and times I just posted. The connective playmaking comes from his ability to control a game without being a ball stopper.

The picture at the top of this piece comes from a local Chicago AAU tourney held before Buzelis’ senior year. He decided to run as a one off with the aforementioned Full Package squad that he began his grassroots career with. I was excited to see him finally play in person. However I braced myself to be disappointed by a player with a level of entitlement or hero ball. It would be understandable if he attempted force the issue to live up to the hype back in his hometown.

What I saw could not have been further from that reality. He came off the bench and seamlessly fit into the system of a talented squad that I had been watching most of the summer. He passed and scored within the system. And when things broke down a bit— he went to work. At that time he had a distinctive hop/gather step (he might have smoothed that out by now) But when he went to it you know something special and was coming. He was unstoppable going to the basket. As the combine numbers showed. Has the size to shoot over you. Along with the vertical explosion to simply jump over you. And if you put a big on him, has the elite lateral quickness to easily get around them. So what’s the problem? Why isn’t he going #1 overall in this weak class?

The Fit (or problem if you insist)

The Pistons are really bad. Part of the reason they are really bad (and there are many) is they can’t shoot. Here is the rub with Buzelis’ fit. I cited a lot of numbers so far. One group of numbers that do not work in his favor are his shooting percentages. With the G-League Ignite he shot a paltry 27% from the three point line. When a scout is trying to spin poor shooting stats. They might also point to good free throw shooting. Using that stat as sign that there is room for improvement.

Unfortunately, that’s not much better. Buzelis shot 68% from the charity stripe. Not great for a guy who excels on penetration and getting to the line. So why is he still a good fit for the Pistons? Here is where we will return to the concept of “connective playmaker”. There is a world where the Pistons new head of basketball operations comes in and blows things up.

However I don’t see that happening. The ball is probably going to be in the hands of a newly extended Cade Cunningham a lot. Jaden Ivey will still be explosive from the wing. Jalen Duren and Isiah Stewart are still going to be doing the tough guy thing in the post.

The Pistons could use a top 5 pick on Dalton Knecht or French prospect Zaccharie Risacher and have them stand in the corner and wait for open looks. I don’t hate it. (Risacher will probably be gone by #5) Let’s be honest though, this is not a great draft for shooters. Beyond that, I don’t believe adding simply a “good” shooter would change the trajectory of this team. If it was as simple as that. Bojan Bogdanović and Joe Harris would have popped more than they did.

The Pistons need what I saw in that tournament in Chicago. A player that can dynamically initiate offense from anywhere on the court. A player who can share playmaking duties with Cunningham. Drawing defenders away in an untraditional manner. A player who can find an attacking and cutting Jaden Ivey closer to the basket than where he started many of his drives last year. That player is not Alexandre Sarr or any of the players being mocked in Buzelis’ range.

Will it Work?

Matas Buzelis is a super sized uber athletic wing who struggles to shoot. On paper that sounds a lot like last years #5 pick Ausar Thompson. Buzelis is not Thompson though. Pardon the cliche, but games are not played on paper. Understandably, most draft sites do not like to archive their mock draft history. For the reasons already stated. It should be noted that Buzelis was the consensus #1 overall pick at the beginning of this cycle.

So why is he possibly still going to be available at #5? To simplify things, he essentially made a bad college decision. The G League Ignite is shuttering after this year. For a wide variety of reasons, it was a good idea that just did not work. Yes, there have been success stories. But players like Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga have taken a few years to develop. One of purposes of this program was to speed that process up. Across the board it did not accomplish this goal. Buzelis’ pedestrian stats and lack of winning with the program appear to be an unfortunate coda and byproduct of this failed experiment.

Connecting the AAU dots and hometown pedigree. If Buzelis would have went to college. It would have been somewhere like Kentucky. I am a big fan of Reed Sheppard. Covered him extensively for two years with Ohio based Midwest Basketball Club. Strip away the schools, and tell me who is more intriguing from a NBA Draft perspective. A 6-2 backcourt prospect? Or a 6-9 prospect with the ability to possibly play and defend the 1-4 spots? I spoke earlier of connective playmaking. That is essentially the role Sheppard played off the bench at Kentucky. Didn’t put up big stats, but just made Kentucky better.

If Buzelis would have went to Kentucky. I have little doubt he would have slid seamlessly into the Reed Sheppard role. When you combine it with his elite size and the corresponding media attention. It’s pretty safe to say Buzelis would have held onto that pole position as the consensus top player in this draft.

Conclusion

Even though the lack of shooting does not make Buzelis a perfect fit with the Pistons. When you are this historically bad. You take the best available talent and see if your little chemistry experiment eventually explodes. You also need a little luck.

You needs to hope the Atlanta Hawks do not realize a 6-9 multi positional playmaker could be the skeleton key that unlocks the ill fitting Trae Young/Dejounte Murray combo. You need to hope Gregg Popovich doesn’t realize Buzelis is a better version of what he hoped Jeremy Sochan could become.

Buzelis is a kid from the upper Midwest who plays with a bit of chip on his shoulder. If you have listened to his pre draft media hits. He’s a competitor who is not going to be intimidated. While the Ignite experiment didn’t work out on the macro level. On the micro level. He’s already been competing against pros for a year.

If you are Troy Weaver, Trajan Langdon, or even Tim Connelly. You take the best player in the draft and worry about the fit down the road. If he is still there, you make Matas Buzelis the pick at #5. Motor City Matas has a nice ring doesn’t it?