MHSAA Bracketolgy: Division II Outlook

Part 3 in a series that will analyze the upcoming MHSAA state basketball tournament. I’ve enjoyed going through the first two divisions. Please be sure to check them out and enjoy the rest of the site. Now the task gets a bit more arduous. Bigger divisions means bigger enrollments. Which means deeper fields and more talent. That’s not big city bias. That’s just the numbers. This will lead to some difficult decisions and picking against teams I think are really good.

Once again for the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round. Once more I’ll include this disclaimer: This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.

Quarterfinal #5 @Alma
Cadillac vs Flint Hamady

Cadillac has tough road to get the quarterfinals. First a brutal district hosted by a two loss Big Rapids team that almost beat the Vikings. That field also features an undefeated Hart squad and a always good two loss Ludington team. Whoever comes out that faces a regional with Kingsford, Standish Sterling, and a Boyne City team that might have the best player in the top half of the draw in Alex Calcaterra.

So why am I picking Cadillac? The draw and experience. The experience portion is simple. They made it to the quarterfinals last year and return virtually their entire rotation. They shouldn’t be fazed by the moment. That showed in a come from behind overtime victory against a good Traverse City St Francis team to close out the regular season.

The draw is a bit more involved and I’ll try and keep it brief. In the district Cadillac will only have to beat one of the three mentioned above. If they get out of the district they benefit from playing in Northern Michigan. Due to the geographical spread of the region. Matchups do not flip flop from year to year. While the Vikings have a short road trip to take on Standish Sterling team they defeated last year. Boyne City will be venturing deep into the UP to take on a good Kingsford squad. I’m going to give the slight nod to Cadillac.

The bottom part of the bracket is deep as well. The participant should come from the trio of Bridgeport, Saginaw, and Flint Hamady. If you have been following along in this series. You know I usually side with experience. I’m going to break that rule and lean towards a young Hamady squad. Led by bouncy two guard Jakobie Boose. The Hawks appear primed to take off. I just can’t look past the difficulty of their schedule and quality of wins. Two of their four losses came to Division III favorite Flint Beecher (no shame their). They also holds wins over Detroit King and Hamtramck. Those are quality Division I teams that possess Division I (college) talent.

Pick: Flint Hamady over Cadillac

Quarterfinal #8 @Lake Orion
Ferndale vs Croswell-Lexington

If you thought quarterfinal #5 was deep. Goodness get ready for this field. Warren Lincoln, Warren Michigan Collegiate, and Ferndale are all state championship caliber teams. I have honestly dreaded this pick since starting this series. While the Warren located schools might have more top level talent. I’m going to revert back to the draw and experience logic used at the top to give the slight edge to Ferndale. 

The draw— The Warren schools will eliminate each other in districts. Ferndale wouldn’t get the survivor of that grudge match until the regional final. The experience— since head coach Juan Rickman has arrived at Ferndale. The Eagles have tasted nothing but deep March runs. A quarterfinal, a final, and semifinal appearance respectively. This unit expects to be at the Breslin. 

While they lack the hands down division 1 prospects of past teams. They are balanced and check a lot of boxes. Senior point guard point play—Cam Reed. Deep shooting— Noah Blocker. Dynamic wing scoring— Trenton Ruth and Caleb Renfroe. Post play— Jayden Hardiman (6-7) and Christopher Williams (6-5). It feels strange picking an eight loss squad to advance so far. But they faced one of the most difficult schedules in the state. 

The bottom of this bracket is a little more straightforward. While I definitely think it’s possible for Richmond and Pontiac Notre Dame Prep to come out of this draw. I’m going to give the nod to the experience and guard play of Croswell-Lexington. The Pioneers have had a four run that rivals Ferndale as far recent success. Even dropped a double OT thriller to the Eagles two seasons ago. 

Good point play is generally a prerequisite for March success. Cros-Lex features not one but two excellent point guards. Trey Kolakovich is the more traditional point of the two. Excellent passer who also has the ability to score. Zachary Kroetsch is a little bigger and is an excellent shooter. This size and shooting ability allows him to handle the two. But the Hiram College (OH) commit has no problem playing the point when needed. That is quite a luxury for a team to have. An additional luxury is size in 6-7 center Donovan McDonald. The Pioneers will be a tough out. 

Pick: Ferndale over Croswell- Lexington

Quarterfinal #6 @Calvin College*
Grand Rapids Christian vs Grand Rapids South Christian

Note: Currently the game is scheduled to be played at South Christian. I’m told if the Sailors advance it will most likely be moved. Calvin is just my best guess due to prior precedent

Similarly to the Detroit area pod directly above it. There is a clear big three in this group. Benton Harbor might be able to break the parochial school stranglehold. But Grant Gondrezick is going to have to get real hot from beyond the arc for that happen. Recent history is on the side of Grand Rapids Catholic Central. However they have the most losses of the big three and I worry about the lack of size along the front line. Picking against the Cougars feels dangerous. I just think Grand Rapids Christian’s frontline of Jaylan Ouwinga (6-7), Nate Johnson (6-5), and possibly even Carter Goodyke (6-5) might be too much for Catholic to overcome.

Now that I got the difficult pick out of the way. It’s gets easier right? Nope. Christian now has to get past Grand Rapids South Christian. The Eagles (man their are a lot of Eagle mascots) handled South way back in the first game of the season. However the Sailors were breaking in a new coach (Taylor Johnson) and still getting their sea legs under them after winning a football state championship. They are a much better and different team than that first contest. Is that improvement enough?

Am I really going to pick against players like Durral Brooks and Carson Vis? I can’t believe this but— yes. Christian doesn’t have the best duo. That would be Catholic with Brooks and Kaden Brown. Christian might not even have the best starting lineup. That would probably be South with the senior leadership to go along with Vis and Jake Vermaas. However the best full rotation resides with Christian. I’m going to swallow hard and give them the nod.

Pick: Grand Rapids Christian over Grand Rapids South Christian

Quarterfinal #7 @Milan
Chelsea vs Romulus Summit North Academy

If you have followed me on other websites or publications. You know I am really high on the players in the Chelsea program. They are led by the junior duo of Joey Cabana and Jake Stephens. Cabana is an athletically explosive scoring guard. Stephens is a “do it all” type forward who just makes so many winning basketball plays. They were always going to be a tough out. Putting the regional on their home court will make that task even harder. Beyond that they will also avoid the Olivet/Onsted combo as those two will face off in the regional semis. I’m taking the Bulldogs to the quarterfinals.

Who are they going to face? I’m going to go with the Dragons of Romulus Summit North Academy. State championship head coach Mark White has a young but talented and deep roster. Their only two losses have come to fellow state championship contenders. Not the biggest team you will see. But beyond that there are not many weaknesses in their guard heavy lineup.

Pick: Chelsea over Romulus Summit North Academy

Semifinal Picks (brief)

Ferndale over Flint Hamady

Grand Rapids Christian over Chelsea

Champion: Grand Rapids Christian over Ferndale. Beyond the aforementioned frontline. I also like Christian’s backcourt of Donovan Thames and Malachi Hooser. I’m not going to lie. While I do a lot of scouting. Kind of going with my gut on this one. I think this might be the 2023 version of Warren De La Salle (who Christian also beat this year) I don’t think many picked a junior dominated seven loss Pilot squad that finished fourth in the Catholic league to win a state championship last year. Christian could surprise in similar fashion.