MHSAA Bracketology: Division I Outlook

Back for another year. It’s America’s.. err..Michigan’s…err… my favorite game. The chance to predict one of the more volatile and unpredictable brackets in sports. The upcoming state high school basketball tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round. 

As always…. This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If this is taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.

….and then there was one. Saving the best for last. The big boys in Division I. If you are scoring at home. I did ok in Division I last year. Getting 50% of the quarterfinal field and the eventual state champion correct (that wasn’t a hard one) You can read that here

Quarterfinal #2 @ Mason
East Lansing vs Belleville

The top line is essentially a Lansing versus Kalamazoo invitational. Can a solid Mason squad make it to this round on their home court? Can a junior laden Kalamazoo Central squad get here slightly ahead of schedule? What about Lansing Waverly? The answer to all of these question is… East Lansing. They are just too talented, deep, and driven after falling in this round last year. If anyone can stop them it is Waverly. Two the Warriors three losses came to the Trojans. They were close defeats as well. Junior Xavier Pendergrass and Derek Thomas II have the ability and bulk to exploit the Trojans main weakness, size on the block. East Lansing finds a way to sneak past them one more time.

On the bottom line, Ann Arbor Huron is the presumptive favorite in a challenging pod. Huron advancing would constitute a rematch from last year. I’m going for the slight upset with a Belleville squad I have liked since this summer. A deep “strength in numbers” type of rotation. I wonder if sophomore Adam Coats could put together a breakout March. I’m not sure the Tigers are playing their best basketball of late. However they host the regional which could be a huge advantage amongst a bunch of evenly matched teams.

While Coats might get them through the regional. 6-8 senior Braylon Mannnan (Wayne St) would be the key in a matchup against East Lansing. Senior Shemar Woodson would also need to to neutralize Cam Hutson (Saint Louis) and Jayce Branson.

Pick- I’ve given you Belleville’s prescription to beat East Lansing. I don’t think they will. East Lansing makes the shortest geographic trip possible to the Breslin Center. They have been knocking on the door for a while. This bang it down this yesr.

Quarterfinal #4 @ Detroit Mercy
Orchard Lake St Mary’s vs Port Huron Northern

The top of this bracket is deep and talented. Congratulations to Jake Champagne and Oxford on an outstanding regular season. Clarkston’s present and future looks promising. Waterford Mott is building something special as well. However, St Mary’s is the defending champion for a reason. March exists for upsets, but I don’t see it happening here.

Port Huron Northern has eight losses against a gauntlet of a schedule. They have the top level talent and depth to give St May’s a run. Juniors Amir Morelan and Alex Jamison could be the duo the beat in this pod— next year. This year that duo remains Trey McKenney (pictured) and Sharod Barnes (Western Michigan)

Pick- I kind of let the cat out of the bag there. For the third straight year. Orchard Lake St Mary’s will head to the Breslin Center.

Quarterfinal #3 @ Detroit Mercy
Dearborn vs Wayne Memorial

The top line is pretty stout. While Lincoln Park put to together a nice regular season. This spot will come down to two huge matchups. Last year’s Dearborn/River Rogue contest featured one of the widest endings you will see. In a true toss up contest like this, I’m going to give the edge to Dearborn for this round.

Then the PSL rivalry of the 21st century. Cass and King, King and Cass… Seemingly always going back and forth. They split this season because— that’s just what they do. If it is truly back and forth, it’s now Cass’ turn. However they do not appear to be hot heading into March. I’m going to give the nod to Detroit King. Junior Steven Jones and 6-9 sophomore Tyler Hunter form a nice inside out duo. In the final Dearborn has easier road and they host the regional. I’m going to advance Hamoudy Mashhour and company onto to the quarterfinals.

The bottom of this bracket…. my lord this is tough. I have been a big Renaissance believer all year. They appear to be coming into their own late as the PSL champions. UD Jesuit and Brother Rice have the best resume. Birmingham Groves is really good with two Division II commitments in Josh Gibson (Alabama-Huntsville) and John Simpson (Northwood) Wayne Memorial is young but ready to take the next step.

So… let’s go with who has the best point guard. Dang, Lance Stone, Leroy Blyden Jr, David Williams, and Carlos Medlock Jr doesn’t narrow it down much. How about the supporting casts— Forget it, we are now at the vibes portion of the bracket. You could make a perfectly logical case for any of these teams. I have seen Wayne Memorial most recently and they were very impressive. A young team breaks through seemingly every year. I’m going to go with the young backcourt of the Zebras.

Pick- No I am not on the KLAA payroll. The idea that they would have three teams in the quarterfinals, while the Catholic League has one is pretty close to crazy. But it’s called “Madness” for a reason. Wayne Memorial defeats Dearborn and heads back to the Breslin for the first time since Lorenzo and the late LaVelle Guess were suiting up at Wayne.

Quarterfinal #1 @ Caledonia
Muskegon vs Grand Rapids Northview

Marquette has proven of late that they are as good of a UP Division I team as we have seen in a while. They are an intriguing upset pick. However I think the winner of District #4 will get the top line. Sounds easy enough. With Greenville trying to play spoiler, it’s going come down to Muskegon or Rockford. That is a very difficult call. I’m concerned about both team’s health. Perhaps Muskegon more than Rockford. The Big Reds have seemingly taken off after their injuries struck. All year I was planning on taking a very impressive Rockford squad. That being said, I just can’t pull the trigger on a team going into the Muskegon area and besting a Keith Guy squad in districts. It simply almost never happens.

With Grand Haven possibly stepping into the spoiler role. A big three of Grand Rapids Northview, Byron Center and, Hudsonville are the bottom. The regional is in Hudsonville’s new gymnasium. I’m usually a sucker for that advantage. However sometimes the new facilities don’t have the same type of home court feel that the old barns do. I really like Byron Center as well. However I’m going to go with Grand Rapids Northview. I think Brady Swartz (Western Michigan) will be on a dual mission. He wasn’t able to play last year in the tournament due to injury. He is also probably a little salty after being left off as a finalist for Mr Basketball. If an opponent key in on Swartz, junior Cam Ryans could go off as well.

The longer Muskegon plays, the healthier they get. They have the depth and requisite big bodies to throw at Swartz and Ryans. They have more size down low with 6-7 senior Elija Langston (Ferris St) than Northview. While Northview’s sophomores are playing better than they did at the beginning of the year. I’m not sure they can match Muskegon’s veteran rotation. The Big Reds of Muskegon back to the Breslin Center.

Semifinal #1
East Lansing vs Orchard Lake St Mary’s

The Trojans of East Lansing in the Breslin Center dotted with second generation Spartan legacy players will be a fun scene. They have proven they can compete with St Mary’s. The x-factor could be junior guard KJ Torbert. Not sure if St Mary’s can match the bounce and explosion he brings to the backcourt.

That being said, I just can’t pick against a Trey McKenney (Michigan) led team. Playing in the shadows of his future gridiron home, Jayden Savoury (Michigan St-FB) could have a big game in the post. While Orchard Lake St Mary’s features their own Spartan legacy recruit in freshman Mateen Cleaves. Cleaves is trending towards being one of the top players in Michigan’s still emerging 2028 class.

Semifinal #1
Wayne Memorial vs Muskegon

This should be a good one. If junior high flyer James Martin is back. The Big Red backcourt along with Darryl Thompkins Jr could put stress defensively on the Wayne Memorial backcourt. The aforementioned juniors Medlock and Jaylohn Allen are the offensive engines for Wayne. If the Big Reds can make then work on both ends of the court. That could be huge. Similarly to the quarterfinals, Muskegon’s experience and depth might just be too much for a team centered around two backcourt scorers. Watch out for late blooming 6-6 forward Austin Torry to help down low for the Zebras. I don’t think that will be enough to slow down the Big Reds.

The Final

A rematch of the 2023 semifinals which Muskegon won. Trey McKenney attempting to join the pantheon of Mitten greats who have gone back-to-back. Health is the only question I have. It’s a legitimate question currently. If McKenney is good to go, I can’t see him getting beat in March. A player from Flint, playing in the Detroit area, heading to Ann Arbor. With legacy statement win in Lansing. I’d say that is nice geographically diverse coda to an outstanding career.