MHSAA Bracketology: Division I Outlook

Back for another year. It’s America’s.. err..Michigan’s…err… my favorite game. The chance to predict one of the more volatile and unpredictable brackets in sports. The upcoming state high school basketball tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round. 

As always…. This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If this is taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.

….and then there was one. Saving the best for last. The big boys in Division I.

**current record in parentheses**

Quarterfinal #1 @ TBD
Muskegon (19-2) vs Grand Rapids Northview (18-4)

Overview: It has been a long lingering question. Since the brackets were adjusted before last season. Since Michael DeKuiper hit a corner three to win a district. Since Muskegon’s was awarded home court in the districts this year. Can Rockford go into the Muskegon area in consecutive years and walk away with two district titles? The talented Rams have risen to nearly every challenge this year. However, this is going to be tough. 

Muskegon’s James Martin (Detroit Mercy) is a deserved Mr Basketball candidate. Rockford big Jake Bascom’s (Central Michigan) omission is a snub. These players will not guard each other due to positional differences. That being said, basketball can be a simple game. Whoever plays better among these two should win this one. I think the 6-6 Bascom will have to bear some defensive post responsibilities that Martin will not. The Rams have health concerns that have lingered all year. I’m not picking against the Big Reds in their home gym. 

Greenville should be lauded for a strong two year run. While Traverse City West was the top team in Northern Michigan by a significant margin. However, I don’t think they have enough to break through against either Muskegon or Rockford. Last year, Flint Carman Ainsworth snuck up on everyone and shut out West Michigan from the semifinals in Division I. Saginaw Heritage has the top-level talent to pull that off. I have been impressed with the four year growth shown by 6-5 wing Jaylin Copper (Eastern Michigan) and 6-8 Noah Arnold (Saginaw Valley St).

The bottom line… my goodness. Talk about last man standing. I see nine teams that have the talent to break though. I’ll limit it to three. Hudsonville is talented and has the best senior point guard in Jovaan Daniels. East Kentwood has a strong case to be #1 not only this season, but next season as well. However, only one team has a senior Mr Basketball candidate. Grand Rapids Northview got off an uneven start. Understandable with all the changes in the program. They appear to be peaking at the end of the year. As evidenced by Cameron Ryans (Western Michigan) 41 point outburst that handed defending state champ East Lansing their only loss. 

Pick: I’m going with the Big Reds to get back to the Breslin Center for the first time since their 2023 run to the final game. 

Quarterfinal #4 @ Calihan Hall UD Mercy
Grand Blanc (17-4) vs Macomb Dakota (17-5)

Overview: This pod isn’t as deep as the one above it. However it has a group of teams with sterling records eager to live up to them. I like Clarkston, but I think Auburn Hills Avondale (21-1) has enough to get through to the regional final. Below them, Rochester is the only team in Division I to go 22-0. While that is quite an accomplishment, I’m giving the nod to Grand Blanc. The Bobcats are the Division I version of Romulus Summit Academy North. Three coaches in three years, multiple players transferring out of the program, and they just continue to win. Like Summit, they appear poised for a deep run. This could be sophomore Emmanuel Cooley’s chance to show he is one the best point guards in Michigan’s 2028 class. The regional final will be a rematch of an early season one point win for Avondale. You have already seen what I think of Muskegon. Accordingly, Grand Blanc’s recent road victory carries a lot of weight in this pick. The Bobcats avenge their early season loss and sneak into the quarterfinals. 

The bottom line is going to be a MAC-Red slugfest. The top four teams have a chance to make it out. Port Huron Northern has the best storyline. As their 27 year head coach is retiring after this season. Roseville has the best long term talent in 6-7 sophomore Carter George. Chippewa Valley has the best perimeter attack in seniors Josh Johnson (5-9), Jaden Brown (6-2), and Carson Otto (6-3). I’m going to stay within the large school district for the pick. Macomb Dakota won the Red, and I’m giving them the nod. 

Seniors Tovin Williams (6-3) and Brayden Lee (6-6) provide plenty of perimeter pop in a bigger package. Nehvir Njoku is another dynamic big guard (6-4) who has fit in well after a transfer. If they can get strong point guard play from senior Omar Kasmikha. Dakota will move onto to the quarterfinals. 

Pick: Grand Blanc has more top level talent. However, I wrote the word “senior” a lot in describing Macomb Dakota. Dakota has an advantage as a of group of seniors playing close to home against a younger Grand Blanc. Macomb Dakota as a mild surprise to the Breslin Center.

Quarterfinal #3 @ Don Johnson Fieldhouse Lansing
Kalamazoo Central (18-2) vs Detroit Catholic Central (15-6)

Overview: When the buzz saw that is East Lansing is in your pod. They are going to get a lot of attention. Repeating as state champion in Michigan’s largest classification is hard. It hasn’t been done in nearly a decade. Orchard Lake St Mary’s was a pretty strong favorite last year and came up short. All year I have questioned East Lansing’s depth and size down low. All year they have answered those questions. 

If any other team besides Kalamazoo Central was in their pod, I would continue to pick the Trojans. However, the duo of 6-8 senior Isaiah Theodile (Oakland) 6-6 junior Davier White could be East Lansing’s kryptonite. Theodile is arguably the top finisher and rim runner in the state. White can also stretch the floor with pure jump shot from beyond the arc. The Maroon Giants have the backcourt depth and quickness to get out and run with East Lansing. Particularly with Kameron Bean and Taveon Vaughn. Do it all 6-3 forward TJ Terrentine will need to be big on the defensive end. Picking against the state’s best duo in KJ Torbert (Bowling Green) and Kingston Thomas isn’t particularly comforting. I’m feeling an upset though. Watch out for a talented Lansing Waverly squad to serve as a spoiler. 

On the bottom line… the rumors of the Catholic League’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. That literary reference highlights the reality of the Catholic League was not as deep as its recent lofty heights. That being said, the winner of this gauntlet is still a pretty strong contender for the Breslin Center. I like the Shamrocks for multiple reasons. First and foremost, they are just darn good and deep. Secondly their path is advantageous. 

Ann Arbor Huron might be the best team in the lower part of this bracket. To beat DCC though, they need to get out of Ann Arbor first. Ann Arbor Pioneer has put together a strong season, while a young and talented Ann Arbor Skyline squad will host the district. That is a tough road. If it strengthens Kaiden Morning and company. The River Rats could be a tough out. 

Pick: Detroit Catholic Central might be a year ahead of schedule. The junior wing duo of Andrew Walker and Wycell Davis (pictured) will be a tough matchup for Kalamazoo Central. If the Maroon Giants make it here with the upset. They will be on let down watch. I’m going with the Shamrocks of Detroit Catholic Central. 

Quarterfinal #3 @ Calihan Hall UD Mercy
Wayne Memorial (19-3) vs Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (17-5)

The top line will be a repeat appearance for Wayne Memorial. This might be surprising to some after the Zebra lost a high profile transfer. Wayne Memorial has shown resiliency in dealing with injuries early in the year as well. They have a Mr Basketball finalist in 6-3 Toledo commit Jaylohn Allen leading the way. However, the x-factor will be the play 6-6 Flat Rock transfer Cyrus Goins. Goins has size, extreme length, and positional versatility. Wayne Memorial knows had to ride an elite two pronged attack to the Breslin Center. They just did it last year. I worry about their size along the frontline. That being said, there is not a lot of size in the region. A talented Lincoln Park squad hosts the regional, so they could be threat. While a transfer heavy River Rogue unit could be jelling at tourney time.

The bottom line should be a Catholic League vs PSL showdown. If you are talking PSL, you are talking about Cass and King. The district is at Cass and King has defeated Cass twice this year. It’s hard to beat a good team three times. By that ancient logic, I’m going to give Cass the slight nod. Cass junior Stevie Hall has a size advantage over King’s talented backcourt. This will be emotionally charged contest. Most likely drawing a uber talented Brother Rice right afterwards is going be tough.

That’s why I am giving the edge to Brother Rice. They are this year’s “Ponderosa” team. I know that reference dates me a bit, but Brother Rice has a little bit of everything. Experienced size down low in 6-8 senior Trevor Smith. An explosive attack perimeter led by Greg Grays Jr (Detroit-Mercy commit) Senior leadership in Jacob Lamb (6-2) and Ivan Stojanovski (6-4). Dynamic lead guard play from freshman sensation Jordan McDaniel. If anyone can slow down Brother Rice this year, it is the public school from their own community. Bloomfield Hills is a talented and deep group led by Wayne St commit Da’ron Mason.

Pick: Brother Rice has been knocking on the Breslin Center door for quite some time. They bust it down this year.

Semifinal # 1
Muskegon vs Macomb Dakota

The Big Reds are the more talented and deeper team here. Not going to overcomplicate things here. As Muskegon returns to the final game.

Semifinal #2
Detroit Catholic Central vs Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice

A Catholic League showdown in the Breslin Center. I’m going to give the edge to Catholic Central. The Shamrock junior guard tandem of Isaiah McCree and Malachi Clayton has been playing better of late. While junior BCS football recruit Gideon Gash gives them a unique look on the block. Detroit Catholic Central takes round #3.

The Final

Muskegon wins their first banner since 2014. I like the shooting junior Tyson Worthington has added and senior Kyren Noble (6-6) gives the Big Reds enough size down low. Division I is always the toughest bracket to prognosticate. Just so many good teams. Is it comforting to know that there is a real possibility that your final pick could get knocked out in the districts? Nope, but I have long held that winner of Muskegon/Rockford could be the state final favorite. The metrics back this up.

The oracle has spoken… I hope the sarcasm is evident. Let March Madn… err… February Frenzy commence.