MHSAA Bracketology: Division II Outlook

Back by popular demand for year two (sarcasm dripping) Part 3 in a series that will analyze the fast approaching state tournament. I’m going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round.

Disclaimer: This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me

Quarterfinal #5 @ Big Rapids
Ludington vs Saginaw Arthur Hill

Perhaps the most wide open portion of the Division II bracket. With multiple teams who could make some noise. On paper the favorites are Kingsford and Reed City. However I’m going to go a little off the board and take Ludington. The Orioles feature a battle tested head coach and senior point guard in Thad Shank and David Shillinger respectively. Of their six losses virtually all of them have been to Division I schools. Along with two close conference losses to Whitehall (more on them below) Shillinger is a dynamic four year starter who could really come alive in March. Kingsford is young and good enough to do it this year. I am going to wait year to pencil them in here though. After living in this round earlier in the century, Ludington returns after five year break.

On the bottom line, a lot of ink has been spilled about this being the last year of Saginaw High basketball. With its storied history that is understandable. However don’t overlook the storied history of the other school in town. The Lumberjacks of Saginaw Arthur Hill have been playing with purpose all year. Led by versatile senior Lyna Brooks Jr and sophomore guard Boop Hardy. They decisively beat Saginaw High a week ago in front of a capacity crowd in their last ever meeting. You could argue a state tournament game would have less pressure than that contest. On paper, Flint Powers might be the favorite. However like Kingsford on the top line. They are a young group who might be the pick next year. This year I’m going with Arthur Hill.

Pick: Saginaw Arthur Hill takes the farewell tour the Breslin Center

Quarterfinal #8 @ Lake Orion
Warren Lincoln vs Pontiac Notre Dame Prep

Warren Lincoln has arguably been the top team in the division all year. They have done it against an absolute gauntlet of a schedule. Their February victory over Thornton Township (IL) might be the top win of any team in the state this season. They have an elite backcourt in juniors Moses and Markus Blackwell. Along with a deep rotation of versatile scorers led by junior Da’Marion Bozeman and senior Kimari Barden. The two main obstacles early are defending champion Ferndale and Detroit Edison. While both programs have solid squads. The Abe’s appear to be on a mission this year.

The bottom line is a bit more wide open. I like teams like Goodrich, Imlay City, Center Line, and even a seven loss St Clair. Stop me if you had heard this before— these are young squads who might be a year away. Good guard play is essential to March success. The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame Prep have a solid three pronged backcourt attack with seniors Wade Robinson, Jacob Tuttle, and junior Joseph DeCasas. Robinson is heady point guard capable of both setting up his teammates and scoring in bunches if the game warrants it. They are on six game winning streak and close out the season with a road trip to take on Grand Rapids Catholic Central. They should be well tested and geared up for a deep March run.

Pick: Warren Lincoln onto the semifinals

Quarterfinal #6 @ Hamilton
Whitehall vs Grand Rapids Christian

This is most undoubtedly the group of death in the division. You have all the Grand Rapids area parochial schools, a Mr Basketball candidate, and public schools that have exceeded expectations. I’m going take one of the public schools to advance, 22-0 Whitehall. Camden Thompson has had a monstrous junior season statistically for the Vikings. However he hasn’t done it alone. Fellow juniors Kal Kohler and Camar Ready have also been key contributors. The football team at Whitehall also went undefeated and was slated to make a pretty deep run. They were upset early by Big Rapids. That loss should motivate and galvanize this group. It does not feel right picking against Catholic Central and Mr. Basketball candidate Durral Brooks. I have concerns about his availability though. He has missed time with an injury and did not play in the Cougars home loss to Ottawa Hills. If Brooks is healthy, they can beat anyone. But I’m going to stick with Whitehall.

The bottom line is just as competitive. Featuring perennial powers such Benton Harbor, Grand Rapids South Christian, and Hudsonville Unity Christian. As you can see from above. I’m going with Grand Rapids Christian. They have lost to Warren Lincoln (see below) and a red hot Byron Center squad. That’s it— they have beat everyone else. Muskegon, Hudsonville, South Christian, Catholic Central, and Northview twice in a five days span. It is an impressive resume. They have five senior starters who been trough some battles. There is depth and plenty of young talent as well. They are in the same nightmare district they could not escape last year. However I think they have learned from that experience and will get over the hump this time around. It doesn’t get any easier in the regional against Benton Harbor. But this is just the Eagles year.

Pick: In case you couldn’t tell from the description and image accompanying this piece. I really like this Christian squad. It will be closer than people might expect. As Whitehall is very physical. But Grand Rapids Christian has too many weapons and advances to the Breslin Center

Quarterfinal #7 @ Ypsilanti Lincoln
Chelsea vs Romulus Summit Academy North

For the second time in this series. I’m going to stifle my wild upset minded imagination and pick a rematch from last year’s tournament. When I look at the top line I really like Stevie Elam (Adrian), Ayden Davis (Onsted), and Keyshawn Summerville (Lansing Sexton). I would love to see them advance and they are capable of doing so. However I have a hard time overlooking Chelsea’s backcourt attack of Jake Stephens, Joey Cabana, and Drew Blanton. All of Bulldogs six losses are to good Division I schools. Adrian is a x-factor to watch though. As they are hosting the regional. That being said, the Maples have to get there first. I’m not sure they have the size to slow down Onsted’s 6-9 big man Ayden Davis in the district. Let’s be honest— no one in the state really does. That’s what makes this regional so tantalizing. I’m going with the group that has been there before in Chelsea.

I just lied…. You know who has the size to slow down Ayden Davis? Detroit University Prep and their 6-9 big Xander Wedlow. While this would be a fun matchup to prognosticate. UPrep has to get there first. They are capable of doing it. Once again, just like Chelsea above. It’s hard to pick against a group that has done it before. I would rather have good guards than good bigs in March. The Dragons of Summit North have guards for days. Led by Saginaw Valley St commit Dontez Scott Jr and junior Amir Perryman. While it’s tempting to ding them for losing to Division III teams Detroit Old Redford and Riverview Gabriel Richard. I just picked those teams to advance to the Breslin Center. It would be disingenuous to label them bad losses. Those are their only two losses on the year. They have done it in the face of coaching uncertainty as well. They do not have a lot of size. However 6-5 wing Dominic Krzesowiak has come into his own in his junior season. Just like the top line once again. It’s difficult to overlook the fact that a very good Flat Rock team will be hosting this regional. However, Flat Rock will have to get out of a district hosted by the aforementioned Summit North to get there. I don’t see that happening.

Pick: Last year’s contest was close. Jake Stephens went off from behind the arc. But the Dragons pulled it out behind big senior laden front court. Chelsea doesn’t have a lot of size. That is why they have struggled with Division 1 opponents. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, Summit North doesn’t feature as much size this year either. Accordingly I’m going give the nod to Chelsea to win round two.

Semifinal #1
Saginaw Arthur Hill vs Warren Lincoln

The Abe’s from Warren Lincoln have everything you need for March success. While emotion might be on the side of Arthur Hill. Warren Lincoln advances to the finals.

Semifinal #2
Grand Rapids Christian vs Chelsea

Chelsea’s smaller frontline will hurt them in this one. They will struggle to keep Jaylan Ouwinga (Toledo) and Carter Goodyke (Hope) off the glass. The Eagles will also have the perimeter size and depth to slow Chelsea’s backcourt. Grand Rapids Christian advances to the final.

The Final

Since their midseason matchup at a showcase in East Kentwood. Warren Lincoln and Grand Rapids Christian have been on a collision course for a rematch. As they have continued to win against daunting schedules. In that first game Warren Lincoln won on a last second three. They are pretty evenly matched. I’m going to pick Christian this time around. Five senior next level starters is tough to beat. Watch for Nate Johnson, Malachi Hooser, and Quintin Wills to have big games and neutralize Warren Lincoln’s backcourt. Grand Rapids Christian raises a banner this year.