MHSAA Bracketology: Division III Outlook

Back by popular demand for year two (sarcasm dripping) Part 2 in a series that will analyze the upcoming state tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round.

Disclaimer: This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.

Quarterfinal #10 @ Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
Pewamo-Westphalia vs Niles Brandywine

The above matchup should look familiar. Not going too far outside of the box with a rematch of last year’s quarterfinal. Pewamo-Westphalia’s only two losses have come to one of the top teams in the entire division in, Lainsburg. One of them coming in overtime. The Pirates also own a twenty point victory over my pick to win Division IV, Saginaw Nouvel. Along with a neutral site victory over Division I Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern. That is an impressive resume. The Pirates are led by sophomore Grady Eklund who might be one of the better players this storied program has produced by the time he is done. That should be enough to sneak past an undefeated but young North Muskegon squad that should be a major factor next year. You can never count out Grand Rapids Covenant Christian. They are above .500 against an absurd non conference slate. However, Pewamo will be hosting the regional on their home court. That is a steep hill for opponents to overcome.

As previously stated, this isn’t the most imaginative pick. Due to their lack of size. Brandywine was a squad that I thought could get upset. I also really like both Schoolcraft and Watervilet in their regional. Then— last week happened. A victory over undefeated Benton Harbor is super impressive. The dramatic manner it was accomplished adds to the accomplishment. As the Bobcats erased a 20 margin in the process. They do not have a bad loss, they are heavy on experienced guard play, and they return most of last year’s Breslin bound rotation. With sophomore point guard Nylen Goins having an additional year of experience as well. This is a difficult squad to pick against. So I’m not going to.

Pick: Once again I might not have made this pick last week. I would have leaned towards the Pirates getting some revenge. However when you look at the overall resume and recent performances. Niles Brandywine might just be too good. I’m sticking with the Bobcats to make a return to the Breslin Center

Quarterfinal #9 @ Lake City
Iron Mountain vs McBain

The top line is going to come down to the rubber match between UP powers, Iron Mountain and Menominee. Menominee has had the upper hand of late. Knocking out a one loss Iron Mountain in districts last year. Once again, Iron Mountain is working on a one loss regular season. However that one loss was an overtime home defeat at the hands of Menominee. While Menominee is very good, the Mountaineers are going to get the Maroon monkey off their back. The transitive property continues to stare me in the face (my math teacher would be proud) Iron Mountain holds two wins over a very good Division II Kingsford squad. While Menominee dropped their corresponding two games against the Flivvers (great mascot) That tells me that Iron Mountain’s ceiling is just a bit higher. The have size in 6-6 junior Oskar Kangas, shooting in senior guard Reece Kangas, and dynamic point guard play in junior Gerald Sampoll Torres. That is pretty complete team. I’m picking them to reach that ceiling. Below the bridge both Charlevoix and Harbor Springs could be a factor. However, they are both young and might be a year or two away.

On the bottom line— oh what to do with McBain? I have had them at #1 most of the year. However there is no nice way to say it. They are not playing their best basketball heading into the tournament. They lost to a small Hamtramck unit who sped them up quite a bit. They squeaked by a Traverse City St Francis squad who slowed them down. If you are struggling with both sides of the tempo coin. That gives me some pause. When you add in the fact that a resurgent two loss Benzie Central will be hosting the district. Things could get dicey early. I’ve already given the pick, so there is not much suspense. I think the Ramblers are too big, and Hall of Fame head coach Bruce Koopman will figure out how to exploit an advantage no one else in the division has. A skilled 6-9 center in Evan Haverkamp. The regional could get interesting as Sanford Meridian features 6-6 senior Sawyer Malloy, who could pose some matchup problems. However the Ramblers will have things sorted out by then.

Pick: Back in the bizarre condensed 2021 state tournament. These squads delivered a classic in this same very gymnasium. Foster Wonders went off and allowed Iron Mountain to pull off a close one. While there is not a Wonders level prospect in this game. Iron Mountain will squeak by McBain once again.

Quarterfinal #12 @ St Clair County CC
Detroit Old Redford vs Flint New Standard

It’s not how you start a season, it’s how finish. Arguably the most talented team in the division appears to be playing its best basketball. Detroit Old Redford is very young, but is loaded with next level talent. 6-8 sophomore Jaquan Stennis (pictured), 5-11 sophomore Derrick Kilgore, and 6-2 junior Kason Mayes have the Ravens peaking at the right time. They recently won the Charter School Conference tournament by defeating Detroit University Prep, and Romulus Summit Academy North. Two squads capable of making deep runs in Division II. New Haven could makes things interesting, but I think Old Redford just has too much talent.

Like McBain, I have stubbornly held on to my Flint Beecher stock. However, with the recent forfeitures and on court losses. This might just not be the defending champs year. So who steps into that monumental void? It could be Cass City. However, like McBain they don’t appear to be playing their best ball right now. I’m going to stay in Flint and go with legendary head coach Greg McMath’s Flint New Standard program. They might be a little ahead of schedule as they are led by sophomores Jeffery Turner and Deion Wright.

Pick: Detroit Old Redford in a tight one

Quarterfinal #11 @ Ypsilanti Lincoln
Lumen Christi vs Riverview Gabriel Richard

I’m going to go down a psychological worm hole on this one. Both Lainsburg and Chesaning are state championship caliber teams. Their undefeated records prove that out. However Jackson Lumen Christi is hosting this regional of death. Lainsburg and Chesaning are going to play each other in the regional semifinals. That is going to be a war. I wonder if the team left standing is going to have enough gas in the tank to take on a very good Lumen Christi team, on their home court, a mere 48 hours later. As you can see I am betting they won’t.

Riverview Gabriel Richard came into the season with big expectations and they have lived up to them. Their only two losses have come to Detroit Catholic Central and the aforementioned Lumen Christi. The Pioneers recently avenged that loss in the finals of the CHSL playoffs. They have been knocking on the door for a while, but just couldn’t get past Ecorse. Led by junior guard Luke Westerdale, one of the top players in the division. They should break down that door this year in a major way.

Pick: In the third matchup of the year and second in less than a month. Riverview Gabriel Richard will break the tie with Lumen Christi and head to the Breslin Center

Semifinal #1
Niles Brandywine vs Iron Mountain

Everything about this matchup is a contrast. Contrasting styles of play. Contrasting regions. Two schools who could not be any further apart geographically. Iron Mountain has not faced anyone with the speed of Brandywine. The Bobcats also have the advantage of playing here last year. I’m going with Brandywine.

Semifinal #2
Detroit Old Redford vs Riverview Gabriel Richard

This is a tough one. Neither team has been here before and are young. Both teams have plenty of next level talent. While Westerdale makes Richard go. The backcourts might cancel each other out. It could come down to who wins the paint. Can the Richard’s 6-8 junior Charles Kage slow down Jaquan Stennis? I’m going to give the edge to Old Redford by the slimmest of margins.

The Final

I ranked Old Redford #2 in my summer Way-To-Early Rankings. But I wouldn’t have had them here at Christmas. Nor would I have had them here after January. But tournament games aren’t played in between November and February. They are played in March, and it’s called March Madness for a reason. Can a 14-7 team win a state championship? I think you can tell which way I am leaning. Niles Brandywine will struggle will Old Redford’s size. The Ravens of Detroit Old Redford will take a trophy back to the Motor City.