MHSAA Bracketology: Division IV Outlook
Part 1 in a series that will analyze the upcoming state tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round.
Disclaimer: This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.
Quarterfinal #13 @Escanaba
Painesdale-Jeffers vs Rudyard
Going chalk for the top line. Painesdale Jeffers has the highest MPR in the entire division. That is just a metric and all metrics and inherently flawed. That being said their victory over a good Escanaba team that is two divisions larger than the Jets probably plays a role in that lofty number. They also have a OT loss to the Eskymos as well. They are a balanced high scoring squad. That is usually a good recipe for March success. I think it’s enough to get them past the battle of the “Jets” with Powers North Central and into the quarterfinals.
While it’s a big victory that makes me feel good about the team on the top line. It’s a pair of losses that have drawn my attention on the bottom line. Rudyard dropped two close ones to a very good St Ignace squad that should make some noise in Division III. They also have a point guard in junior Cam Peterson who has experience playing on big stages as a contributor for the Bulldogs last two standout squads. They have lost a lot from those rotations and it shows in their four losses. However they have enough to avenge their regular season loss to Munising and advance to the quarterfinals.
Pick: Painesdale Jeffers over Rudyard
Quarterfinal #16 @West Bloomfield
Taylor Trillium vs Genesee Christian
The World Cup draw is famous for producing “groups of Death”. Meaning pods of teams that are all capable of advancing. Quarterfinal #16 the Division IV version. I’m going to go with Taylor Trillium Academy on the top line. Adrian Lenawee Christian and Brandon Summner are really good. They have some excellent wins. Including victories over Trillium and Lake Leelanau St Mary (see below) However I’m going to go with the squad that has the best senior. Damaryon Fishburn (pictured) is a matchup nightmare at the Division IV level. I think he will be enough to lead Trillium past Lenawee. If there is any solace. Lenawee might be the preseason #1 next year. Don’t let the record fool you. They are really good.
Amazingly the bottom line is probably deeper than the top line. I don’t have enough space to go through the contenders there. Like Trillium I’m going to side with senior leadership. Trenton Boike and Tyler Chapman led Genesee Christian to the Breslin last year. That big game experience should push them over the top once again. I worry about their size and reliance on the three. You never know when a team can go cold. But it will be enough to get to the quarterfinals.
Pick: Taylor Trillium over Genesee Christian- DIFFICULT— As stated above. I just think Fishburn has too much size for the Soldiers. This pick probably has the least amount of confidence.
Quarterfinal #14 @Standish Sterling
Lake Leelanau St Mary vs Hillman
Going with experience once again on the top line. Lake Leelanau St Mary’s is going through a bit of a rough patch right now. But they are an independent school that plays a difficult schedule. In spite of the recent losses. Dylan Barnowski is the type of guard and leader who simply won’t let his team lose. Made it to the Breslin last year and that experience will help the Eagles get there again.
While Michigan still does not have a shot clock. I tend to gravitate to teams that score a lot of points. Scoring up and down the lineup is what Hillman has been known for the past few years. This years squad features high scoring junior forward Trenton Taratuta. In a another deep part of the bracket (Mio, Kingston) he should provide enough firepower to lead the Tigers to the quarterfinals. Hillman’s only two losses have come to Division I schools (one in OT). Taratuta might be the top player in the entire Division NEXT year. He is that good.
Pick: Lake Leelanau St Mary’s over Hillman. Barnowski and Taratuta were AAU teammates this summer. It should be a battle. Are you sensing a theme? When in doubt go with the seniors. The killer B’s of Barnowski and Shawn Bramer back to the Breslin.
Quarterfinal #15 @Richland Gull Lake
Wyoming Tri Unity Christian vs Bellevue
Heavy is the head that wears the crown. With the graduation of Brady Titus the Defenders have taken a slight step back. However they are the defending state champs for a reason. They have a good record against a difficult schedule. Hanif James and company should have enough to get Tri Unity back to familiar surroundings in East Lansing.
Like Hillman Bellevue scores a lot of points. They additionally have the regional on their home court. That will be too much for their opponents to overcome. I can’t resist— with apologies to Russell Wilson. Bronco country “Let’s Ride” to the quarterfinals.
Pick: Wyoming Tri Unity Christian over Bellevue
Semifinal Picks (brief)
Get ready for a whole bunch of Royal Blue and White. Three out of the four teams sport the same colors
Taylor Trillium Academy over Painesdale Jeffers
Lake Leelanau St Mary’s over Wyoming Tri Unjty Christian
Champion Lake Leelanau St Mary’s- Along with their co-op football experience for Suttons Bay. This is just a special group of athletes who have been knocking on the state championship door for a while. This might be year they finally break through.
