MHSAA Bracketology: Division IV Outlook

Back by popular demand for year two (sarcasm dripping) Part 1 in a series that will analyze the upcoming state tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round.

Disclaimer: This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.

Quarterfinal #13 @ Gladstone
Norway vs St Ignace

While I’m intrigued by Lake Linden Hubbell and their high MPR on the top line. I think the first spot is going to come down to who comes out of District #99. That should be between Norway and Crystal Falls Forest Park. The historian in me leans towards Forest Park and their tradition. I’ve also been alerted to some serious young talent for the Rangers. However I’m going to go with Norway. While the Knights are young as well, they are little more experienced than Forest Park. The two split in the regular season so it’s a real toss up. Norway is going to host the district, strengthening my lean in the Knights direction.

I’m not going to overthink the bottom line. I’ve been high on St Ignace all year. Frankly longer, if you count last years Division III run. Despite an up and down season impacted by injury. I’m going to stick with the Saints. Jonathan Ingalls remains one of the top players in the entire division. Capable of taking over games all by himself. As he did recently with 49 point outing in an overtime loss to Division I Marquette. If he is on, and St Ignace is clicking they will be tough to beat. Watch out for Rudyard and battle tested senior Cam Peterson. They do hold a recent victory over St Ignace. It’s also not very comfortable picking against Munising once again. They made me look silly last year on the way to a state championship. But (swallows hard) I’m going with the Saints.

Pick: In his hometown of Gladstone, St Ignace head coach Doug Ingalls gets his squad to the Breslin Center

Quarterfinal #14 @ Portage Northern
Tri-Unity Christian vs Hillsdale Academy

It’s hard to pick against the Crusaders who are THE blue blooded program of this division. I have a little pause as a talented Fowler team hosts Tri-Unity’s regional. However the Crusaders have enough talent and experience to overcome that adversity. Especially in the backcourt, which is always a solid indicator for March success.

You could go a few directions on the bottom line. I like how aggressive the Colts were out of conference. Hillsdale Academy also has a semifinal appearance in their recent history. Without a huge confidence meter reading. I’m going to go with Hillsdale Academy.

Pick: After falling last year in the final game. Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian will be motivated to make it back to the Breslin— and they will

Quarterfinal #15 @ Houghton Lake
Glen Lake vs Saginaw Nouvel

Man, the top line is the group of death. Loaded with good teams capable of making a deep run. I would say there are at least six teams with the high end talent to make it interesting. Hillman and Buckley might have the best individual players in Trenton Taratuta (Hillman) and Landon Kulawiak (Buckley) Traverse City Christian and Bellaire are young teams who still might be year away. Last year showed, you can never count out Frankfort. However I am going to go with recency bias and tab Glen Lake. They looked really good in defeating Traverse City St Francis last weekend. I don’t think any of the teams listed above can shut down 6-6 sophomore star Jacob Plamondon in the post. The Lakers have battled through a difficult schedule and a mid season coaching change. In their first year in the division. I’m going to pencil them in here.

The bottom line is bit more straightforward. Pick your Mid-Michigan Catholic school. While Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart might have the better looking overall resume. I’m going to go with Nouvel and their dynamic senior backcourt. Twins MJ and Donny Yeager are going to be tough to beat. The Panthers started the year 0-3 against a difficult schedule and have looked pretty solid since that poor start. Sacred Heart is young so they might be the pick next year, but I’m going to go with the seniors.

Pick: Saginaw Nouvel over Glen Lake. Jacob Plamondon is REALLY good. However with Jack Wilson and Preston Otter. Nouvel will have some size to throw at him. I don’t know if the Lakers can chase around the Yeager twins for 32 minutes

Quarterfinal #16 @ St Clair County CC
Lenawee Christian vs Cardinal Mooney

That Petersburg-Summerfield regional is another brutal gauntlet. Possibly featuring state championship programs in Detroit Douglass and Southfield Christian The host squad, Petersburg-Summerfield is a resurgent group at 16-4. However, they have to get out of an equally difficult district to even have a chance to host. Then you have a 20-1 Taylor Trillium, who has been knocking on the door of the Breslin Center for a few years now. They have to get out of a district hosted by a good Allen Park Inner City Baptist squad first. I’m going to go with none above and pick Adrian Lenawee Christian. They have an excellent duo with senior guard Brandon Summer and 6-4 sophomore forward Jaxon Salenbien. They also feature contributors who have already held a state championship trophy this year on the 8-man gridiron. Additionally they host their district, have two losses against a difficult schedule, and once again I like the championship experience.

Speaking of championship experience. Marine City Cardinal Mooney is going to show it off once again. The record isn’t great, but it’s littered with Division I losses. A tough schedule combined with good guard play allowed them to advance to the Breslin Center last year. They still have good guard play in senior Brian Everhart. That should be enough to get them back to the quarterfinals this year as well.

Pick: Adrian Lenawee Christian over Cardinal Mooney in a close one

Semifinal #1
St Ignace vs Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian

Sometimes you just go with your gut. Jonathan Ingalls’ skill level provides a unique advantage for St Ignace. Tri-Unity will be bigger on the glass. They will have more depth. Most of the current team played in this round last year. However they were defeated by another UP school last year in the final against Munising. I think this St Ignace team is a little better than that Munising squad. In the their first year in the division— forgive me— the Saints go marching in to the finals.

Semifinal #2
Saginaw Nouvel vs Adrian Lenawee Christian

If you are noticing a trend here. At the smaller levels, I lean toward dynamic senior guard play. That fits the description of Yeager twins. Just like they will be able to do against Glen Lake. Nouvel will have the size and bodies to throw at standout sophomore Jaxon Salenbien. I’m picking Nouvel to move onto the final.

the Final

Call me a sucker for sentiment. The first game I ever attended at the Breslin Center was a 1991 quarterfinal where a huge Saginaw Nouvel squad led by Jamie Dill defeated Montabella en route to an eventual state championship. I was hooked. Thirty plus years later. Nouvel is going to raise another banner. Math isn’t my thing— but two is better than one. Nouvel’s two headed monster in the backcourt will be too much for St Ignace’s singular attack.