MHSAA Bracketology: Division IV Outlook
Back for another year. It’s America’s.. err..Michigan’s…err… my favorite game. The chance to predict one of the more volatile and unpredictable brackets in sports. The upcoming state high school basketball tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round.
As always…. This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If this is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.
We will start with Michigan’s smallest classification Division IV.
Quarterfinal #13 @ Gladstone
Crystal Fall Forest Park vs Pickford
The March anarchistic in me would love to go for an upset. However since they both appeared in 8-Man football championship games. These two teams feel like they have been on a collision course. I’m intrigued by Norway’s six-man warrior squad. That being said I picked the Knights last year and Forest Park made me look silly. Fool me once…
On bottom half of the bracket. I’m intrigued by a very young Harbor Spring Harbor Light Christian squad. They appear to be playing their best basketball in March. That being said, does playing their best basketball make up for losing to Pickford by thirty plus points earlier in the year. I don’t see it.
Pick- Spoiler alert— there is going to be a lot chalk in this division. So I’ll role the dice a little here. Not that Pickford is some type of monumental upset. They are a guard oriented and I love good guards in March. A little Purple Rain at the Breslin Center as the Pickford Panthers advance to the semifinals.
Quarterfinal #15 @ Richland Gull Lake
Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian vs Adrian Lenawee Christian
My eyes and the numbers tell me three teams are the class of this pod. Tri-Unity Christian, Lenawee Christian, and Petersburg-Summerfield. Battle Creek St Phillip has unique familial makeup to their team. Along with a nice resume. However a triplet led squad is not a better story that one of the legends of Michigan High School coaching hanging up his whistle. St Phillip might be the team next year. But Tri-Unity continues their hegemony of this region and goes back to the quarterfinals.
The question on the bottom half centers around who wins the third matchup between Lenawee Christian and Petersburg-Summerfield. They split in the regular season with each team winning on the others home court. The game will be played at Petersburg-Summerfield. Despite that, I’m going with Lenawee. They know they can win on the Summerfield court. They are motivated after a surprising early upset last year. And they might have the top talent in the division in 6-4 junior Jaxon Salenbien.
Pick- This is a rematch from earlier in the season. I attended that game. The game was closer than the score. As Jaxon Salenbien fouled out and Lenawee was slightly shorthanded coming out of the holiday. If sounds like I am setting up another upset— I’m not, Tri-Unity goes back to the Breslin Center in Mark Keeler’s final season.
Quarterfinal #14 @ Houghton Lake
Bellaire vs Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart
I have ranked Bellaire all year. I’m going to stay with the Eagles, but I’m going to use some circuitous logic. I’m not picking them necessarily because I think they are the top team. I like their senior experience and their path is much more advantageous than the other squads in this pod. The path begins by hosting their own district. The other districts in the region.….whew!!!
A colleague of mine previews the state tournament by going through the “districts of death” I’m not going to steal that, but let me tell you— District 107 in Suttons Bay? That is a gauntlet. Four teams that I have ranked at some point in the season. They have all played each other as well, so no surprises here. Traverse City Christian, Lake Leelanau St Mary, Frankfort, and Buckley. On paper TC Christian is the favorite. Buckley won it last year. While Frankfort and St Mary’s have recent Breslin experience. I’m not picking districts. Whoever wins this might be out of ballets by the time they take on Bellaire.
Furthermore, the winner of that district will also probably take on a talented Marion squad who has 10 mile road trip to get to the regional at McBain Northern Michigan Christian. If someone from District 107 gets to the quarterfinal. They would have earned it. Not that Bellaire would be some “luck of the draw” champion. Seniors Drake Koepke and Jayden Hanson are the most talented duo in the region. In a good year to be an Eagle. Bellaire advances onto the quarterfinals.
That is where it will end. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart was one of the better defensive teams I saw last year regardless of class. They return their big three. Seniors Grady Pieratt and Brody Cherry along with junior Noah Zein are bulldogs on the perimeter. The recent Fulton loss is concerning. However it’s another Lansing area “F” school that I view as their biggest threat. Sacred Heart is very good, but they do seem to struggle with size. Fowler is good and big. They defeated Tri-Unity very early in the season. They are the prototype of a team that beats Sacred Heart. BUT….not in Sacred Heart’s home gymnasium. The Irish hosting the regional will be extremely tough for Fowler or anyone else in this pod.
Pick- This was the longest section, so this will be brief. Bellaire simply hasn’t seen the type of defensive pressure that Sacred Heart will throw at them. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart back to the Breslin.
Quarterfinal #16 @ West Bloomfield
Allen Park Inter-City Baptist vs Kingston
The toughest pod to project as I don’t get to much Division IV basketball in the Detroit or Thumb areas. Detroit Douglass probably has the most overall talent. Clarkston Everest Collegiate has the best record. AP Inter-City Baptist has the recent tournament pedigree. I’m going to go with the pedigree. Detroit Douglass will back on top soon if they stick together as a group. They are that talented. But they might still be a year away.
It feels like Kingston has been knocking on the door for a while. Sterling Heights Parkway Christian has some intriguing wins and could play a geographic spoiler in this region. However once again, Kingston hosting the region in their own gym will be enough to get Cardinals into the quarterfinals.
Pick- Inter-City head coach Mark Kraatz won’t like the fact that Lance Stone broke his longstanding MHSAA assist record— that’s a joke. Inter-City is back to the Breslin Center because juniors Carlos Jackon and Ethan Esse are really good.
Semifinal #1
Pickford vs Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian
Last year Tri-Unity needed a second half rally to defeat a quick starting UP squad in St Ignace. Grace Christian commit Keaton Blanker (pictured) won’t let that happen again for Tri-Unity. The senior who just oozes winning intangibles will get 6-6 Joey Mellon good looks against a smaller Pickford squad. The hard working high school sports journalists will have their pens ready for Mark Keeler’s cinematic final game
Semifinal #2
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart vs Allen Park Inter-City Baptist
A rematch from last year where Sacred Heart was the much better team. While Inter-City Baptist is a year older and improved. So is Sacred Heart. The margin might be closer, but I’m not sure it has been narrowed enough to think of an upset. Sacred Heart makes it a repeat appearance in the state finals against a very familiar opponent.
The Final
Storybook endings are rare for a reason. Another peculiar fact, in the midst of all of Tri-Unity’s state championship banners (six) They have never gone back-to-back. Why, it’s really tough to do. Tri-Unity has lost more from last years squad than Sacred Heart did from theirs.
So after two recent final game appearances. Both in which they lost to Tri-Unity. Sacred Heart will get their first state championship banner since 1975. I’m not good at numbers…but I think that’s 50 years. Perhaps that is the historic story that will be written coming out of East Lansing this year.
