MHSAA Bracketology: Division IV Outlook

Back for another year. It’s America’s.. err..Michigan’s…err… my favorite game. The chance to predict one of the more volatile and unpredictable brackets in sports. The upcoming state high school basketball tournament. I’m planning on going through each of the four classifications and try to forecast what will happen. For the sake of brevity. I’m only going to project out to the Elite Eight (Quarterfinal) round. 

As always…. This is high school sports. All meant to be in good fun. I have no dogs in this fight. If this is this taken by some team and used as motivation or bulletin board material. That would honestly be perfectly fine with me.

We will start with Michigan’s smallest classification Division IV.

**current record in parentheses**

Quarterfinal #13 @ Gladstone
Crystal Falls Forest Park (16-4) vs Pickford (21-0)

Overview: Spoiler Alert…I’m going to keep things largely within the guardrails early. I’ll get a little weird in the larger divisions, but it will be a lot of chalk here. This is a testament to how strong the top of this division is. I just don’t see many upsets happening.

In the spirit of chalk, this is a repeat from last year’s quarterfinal. Which Forest Park won by two points. Last year’s regular season felt like year long collision course to this round. This year feels the same. I was leaning towards Dollar Bay in this spot for a bit, as they hold a regular season win over Forest Park. However, some recent scores and a loss make me wonder if the Blue Bolts are playing their best basketball heading into the tournament. Forest Park recently avenged an early season loss, and I believe they will do it once again to sneak by Dollar Bay.

You know who does not have to avenge an early season loss? The undefeated Pickford Panthers. They have scheduled as aggressively as an Upper Peninsula school can, given their geography. Making multiple trips below the bridge for stout competition. They are not very big. They are loaded with good guard play though. I would rather have good guards than good bigs in March (or February) Seniors Gunner Bennin, Mac Collins, and Caden Wiltfong are battle tested veterans. Junior Carter Yiirs isn’t very big but can hold up down low. If there is a spoiler here it is a young Harbor Spring Harbor Light Christian squad that pushed Pickford early in the year.

Pick: A little Purple Rain, as undefeated Pickford goes one step further and heads to the Breslin Center this year.

Quarterfinal #16 @ West Bloomfield
Detroit Douglass (15-7) vs Genesee Christian (17-4)

Overview: The featured game of this pod will come early. As Detroit Douglass and Allen Park Inter-City Baptist should face off in a regional semifinal. Inter-City Baptist is coming off back-to-back semifinal appearances. I have had Douglass in the top spot for most of the year due to the gauntlet they face in the Detroit PSL. I’m not sure any other team in the division would fare as well against so many Division I squads.

As their record shows, one team that could is Inter-City Baptist. With wins over quality DI schools like Grosse Pointe South among others. However, the list of teams making three straight trips to the Breslin Center isn’t as long as you think. Compounding the task is the fact that Douglass is hosting this contest on their home court. If Inter-City Baptist makes it back for a third straight year. Seniors Ethan Esse and Carlos Jackson will have earned it. But I’m picking the Hurricanes in this one.

On the bottom half, I like Genesee Christian to finish off what has been a major bounce back season. The Fint area parochial school dealt with major injuries last year. The big three of Cooper Boike, Bryce Davis, and Ethan Church should get the Soldiers back to their more normal status of deep tournament runs.

Often, I just go with the best senior in big close matchup. Genesse Christian will have that with the 6-3 Boike. However, Douglass just has waves of talent. Freshman Damani Oliver and sophomore Joshua Brooks have potential to be one of top in players in their class statewide. Sophomore Quinn Davis has fit in nicely after coming over from West Bloomfield. They have size and just enough experience to offset the youth. They also have a state championship winning head coach on the bench.

Pick: For the first time since their COVID impacted state championship. The Hurricanes of Detroit Douglass will blow back into the Breslin Center.

Quarterfinal #15 @ Portage Northern
Colon (17-4) vs Concord (17-4)

Overview: This pod opened up a bit with two-time defending state champion Unity Christian moving out. But… mercy, it did not get any easier. The top line will come down to who can win the third matchup between Colon and Mendon. Both regular season contests went into overtime and were won by Mendon. Cue my 78 year old father…”it’s hard to beat a good team three times”. With perhaps not the soundest logic, the Colon Magi (great mascot) will move onto the quarterfinals.

The bottom line is murderers’ row of solid teams. Adrian Lenewee Christian might have the top overall talent in the division with 6-3 senior Jaxon Salenbien. (Spring Arbor) Petersburg Summerfield might have the best guard in Carter St John. Hillsdale Academy probably has the best long-term prospect in 8th grader Jackson Huffman (not a typo… a middle schooler) However the best team (Concord) is also hosting the region.

Pick: Concord is as balanced as any team in this division. They have something I don’t believe anyone else does. College bound size in the post with 6-6 Trine (IN) commit Connor Stevens. He is complemented by a deep backcourt. That combined with the regional homecourt advantage will be too much for the other teams to overcome.

Quarterfinal #14 @ Big Rapids
Traverse City Christian (21-0) vs Fowler (19-2)

I believe the top line is Traverse City Christian’s to lose. As an independent, they are undefeated against a difficult schedule. They have weathered some serious injuries and just keep answering every challenge. A physical Lake Leelanau St Marry’s team could surprise, and so could a very young and talented Frankfort unit. However, the skilled 6-3 tandem of senior Garrett Schultz and junior Ethan Johns have uncommon size and skill for the region. Onekama does have the size to counter that in the regional final. However, the experience of playing in this round last year in the very same gymnasium (McBain NMC) should give the Sabers the edge.

If you thought the Concord line was tough… The Merrill region is easily the most difficult in the division. Where to start? Two-time defending state champions.. check (Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian) The last two state finalist… check (Fowler, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart) Historic programs with talent… check… and hold on for this list… Baldwin, Fulton, Muskegon Heights, and Saginaw Nouvel Catholic. If you can believe it, I am leaving out more solid teams who could also surprise.

It would be easy to just go with the blueblood in Wyoming Tri-Unity Christian. The Defenders are talented with senior guards Clayton Rowlader and Brayden Nelson. The junior forward tandem of Cody Osbun and Caleb Hoffman are good players as well. It just feels like Fowler is on a mission. They have had nary a close game and their only losses have come to a Division III final favorite (Pewamo-Westphalia)

Pick: Tri-Unity has made look bad for two years running in this space. So, is the third time a charm? I’m going with Fowler. Beyond Tri-Unity, the size and physicality of seniors Joe Epkey, Jonah Thelen, and Dylan Pline will be too much for Traverse City Christian as well. Fowler makes the short trip back to Breslin Center.

Semifinal #7
Pickford vs Detroit Douglass

Pick: The size of Douglass will too much for a small Pickford unit. Junior Kamari Howard (6-4) will team with sophomore Joshua Brooks (6-4) That will be a difficult duo for Pickford to keep off the glass. Detroit Douglass onto the finals for the first time since 2021.

Semifinal #8
Concord vs Fowler

Pick: This will be a rematch of a January contest that Fowler won by four points. The frontcourts should cancel each other out. Concord has talented but young backcourt headed up sub 6-foot guards in senior Jett Smith and junior Darrell Dean Jr. Fowler will counter with seniors Pline and junior Garett Klein. The ever so slight size advantage and experience in this round will help Fowler win round two.

The Final

Pick: Fowler’s size will be able to keep Douglass off the glass. While Douglass will have a decided speed advantage in the backcourt. No other way to say it. That 10 o’clock start is rough for a fan. I can’t imagine being a player with all the emotion and pomp a final brings. I’m giving Fowler the edge due to the short road trip and experience playing on this floor last year.