Paging Scott Harris

If you follow this space, you are aware that I wanted the Tigers to open the wallet this offseason. Accordingly, I’ve been keeping the powder dry waiting for the Alex Bergman signing. So you might be expecting a rage filled hit piece about how cheap and parsimonious this ownership group was this autumn.

Well….

I’m happy to oblige— to an extent. You can’t say the Tigers didn’t spend money this offseason. Additionally if you believe insider reports. They made a good faith effort to reel in a big free agency fish like Bergman. So why does this offseason haul feel like such a pittance?

It’s quite simple. This fanbase is not being spoiled or entitled. They are simply using the words of Scott Harris, the Tigers Director of Baseball Operations against himself.

“We’re not quite there yet as far as spending at that level because we need to build the foundation of this team to put us in a position to supplement it with free agent signings in the upcoming winters.”

Leaders in sports get a lot flack for meaningless “coachspeak” loaded with tired cliches and non sequiturs. The quote above is from May 28th 2024. It is remarkably straightforward. Unfortunately for Harris and Tigers owner Chris Illitch, it puts them into a bit of a corner. The Tigers foundation is “there”. There is simply no way around that statement.

The team was a game away from an appearance in the American League Championship Series. They have a top five farm system loaded with major league ready prospects. Doing this all on a minuscule payroll mostly clear of long term commitments (dang Javy Báez)

Allow me to quote a Pulitzer prize winning poet who recently captivated the world with this brief following statement

“You picked the right time, but the wrong guy”

While the Tigers did spend money. The manner and method left something to be desired. They did not read the market or fanbase correctly. They only solution is to win and win big. Let’s break down the missteps.

The Budget

I’m not an insider or a high powered businessman. However I don’t think it takes a MBA to ascertain the Tigers had a offseason budget of roughly 30 million dollars. How did I arrive at that figure? We will return to Alex Bregman later, but he was the fulcrum of the offseason. You would not have stayed engaged in talks until nearly the eve of spring training if he wasn’t.

The Tigers reportedly offered Bregman a six year 171 million dollar pact. I believe that offer came early and Tigers did not budge off it. Simple math puts the average annual value (AAV) just south of 30 million. If Bregman would have took it. The Tigers would have closed up shop, sold tickets off it, and filled in on the margins.

It’s not my money. I’ll give the Illitch’s credit. That’s a lot money. However when Bregman didn’t take it. I believe they panicked. They pivoted and quickly spent the money on secondary free agents.

While I don’t have experience with these type multi million dollar transactions. I have bought a car after the one I’m driving breaks down. I have paid the minimum balance on a credit card. Impulse or emergency purchases rarely work out.

The One Year settles

Remember that 30 million budget thesis from above. What were the Tigers first two moves of the offseason? You guessed it— two one year contracts for 15 million dollars. They were spent on two players on opposite ends of the free agency spectrum.

Alex Cobb- Acquired last year by Cleveland Guardians for a playoff push. He was not deemed healthy enough to pitch in the playoffs. He is already injured and will miss time this year. Why— Scott Harris clearly has a thing for him. His last free agent contract was for 2 years and 20 million guaranteed with an option from the San Francisco Giants. Harris was in that front office. Inflation is real, but giving a 37 year old a five million dollar raise after three injury plagued seasons?

Gleyber Torres– A one time uber prospect who was once the centerpiece of a blockbuster Aroldis Chapman trade. Torres endured an up and down career with the Yankees. He began his career with two all star appearances. He has since plateaued and fell out of favor. The Yankees with plenty of money to burn and no obvious successor at second base, simply let him walk.

We could dissect the baseball aspects of these moves (shifting Colt Keith) I’m more interested in the psychological component. What does it say about the front office’s expectations? If you like Cobb enough to give him a raise and sign him twice. Why just one year? If you think the Yankees mishandled Torres and you might have a diamond in the rough. Why just one year?

You could afford to be patient. It should be noted patience did get then a complex reunion with Jack Flaherty that is essentially another one year deal. Look at what else was on the board. If Harris was comfortable with Cobb’s injury history. Could he have waited for the more versatile Ha–Seong Kim. The Tampa Bay Rays (the RAYS) got the Golden Glove winner for less AAV than Torres.

Did you see this list of pitchers who settled for one year deals late in free agency? The aforementioned Flaherty. Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano went for 1 year and 13 million to the Orioles. Justin Verlander (1 year 15 million) Max Scherzer (1 year 15.5 million) The terms on those contracts sound familiar. However I’m not sure those names would resonate with Tigers fans.

I digress with sarcasm. The Tigers didn’t want to wait out for a big name pitching reunion. They didn’t want to wait for younger or more versatile infielder for one simple reason. They want to flip Cobb and Torres for prospects. If they thought they held multi year value. They would have given them multi year deals. They have shown they have the money.

That should not be encouraging to a fanbase wanting a team to take the next step. The Tigers appear content to try and “Moneyball” this experiment at least one more year.

The Bregman factor

I mentioned we would return to Bregman and here we are. As stated above, I don’t believe it was a fake pursuit drummed up by Scott Boras. I do think it was ultimately half hearted and not aggressive enough to swim once again in big free agency waters.

I don’t believe they closed the door on Bregman early. Not sure how signing bonuses are factored in. But the bizarre Spencer Torkelson trade rumors probably had to with freeing up some salary. I’m sure Javier Baez and Kenta Maeda were discussed as well. Followed by other clubs hanging up quickly.

The bottom line is Bregman took significantly less overall money to switch positions for a team in transition that did not make the playoffs last year. They can say Bregman was never coming and move on. However if you dig into the numbers. A different picture emerges. Bregman made 28.5 million dollars in his last year with the Astros (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts)

Texas has no state income tax. Doing the math, while the Tigers were offering long term security. They were essentially asking Bregman to take a pay cut. Why did Bregman take the Red Sox offer? Because they offered him a 12 million dollar raise (40 million a year), some security, and the option to bet on himself again next year.

You can call Scott Boras a lot things. However he is very good securing the best deals for his clients. The Tigers were most assuredly given a chance to match the Red Sox offer. After handing out one year deals to seemingly a quarter of the free agency market. They drew the line with Bregman.

Why? That is a question that I hope Scott Harris and Chris Illitch are willing to answer. My guess is that it won’t be as straight forward and direct of a response as the previous comments from May 28th.

Conclusion

The Tigers front office can afford to be wrong at the moment. They are playing with house money. They will never admit it. However their actions show they probably believe they are a little ahead of schedule on their rebuild.

Consequently the methodology behind the this offseason might be correct. However I’m fairly confident the psychology missed the mark.

I do know this. There is a fan base that is used to winning. They are used to an ownership group that makes the appropriate high dollar investments. They have the hope of a top five minor league system. They now have some optimism that ownership is willing to spend money once again.

Unfortunately that fan base belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

The great American poet Robert Frost once waxed about two roads diverging in the wood and….

Scratch that— we’ll just stick with the modern Poet Laureate Sir Kendrick Lamar Duckworth

“You picked the right time, but wrong guy”