Pat Riley’s Revenge Trade

A lot if ink is going to spilled in the next few days about the Jimmy Butler trade saga. For better or worse, it is what moves the needle in the NBA news cycle. Personally I don’t see how a 35 year old who has never made 1st team All-NBA is really all that newsworthy. That being said, the personalities in play here most definitely interesting.

A slight misreading of those personalities is why I think this saga is going to end in an unexpected place.

Misconception #1 Pat Riley REALLY does not Care

The Miami megaphone that is Dan Le Batard has started to bang this drum. I will add my verse to that chorus. Sometimes an axiom gets repeated enough that we just assume it to be true. I’m hearing a few about Pat Riley of late that are supposed to illustrate how tough he will be during trade negotiations. They are below

“Pat Riley’s only responsibility is to get the best deal for the Miami Heat”

Or this one that spills over as explanations Jerry Jones and Bob Kraft’s recent moves.

“Pat Riley is 80, he doesn’t have time to launch some type of rebuild”

To those narratives I would simply say… the proof of this is what? This man let LeBron James and Dwayne Wade walk. He might not have been happy about it, but it happened. He traded Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and a bag of beans.

This was all done without some type of backup plan. He called out LeBron’s toughness in a press conference (sound familiar) He nickel and dimed the face of the franchise in Wade. He was just tired of Shaq.

This image of Pat Riley eschewing South Beach so he can work the phones and piece together some four or five team deal just doesn’t equate with history. He’s not going to wait patiently for Bradley Beal to waive a no-trade clause.

You know the old and often vulgar saying. The scariest person in any stare down is the person who no longer cares. That is Pat Riley. He doesn’t worry about his legacy. This man is a NINE time NBA champion. He doesn’t worry about getting the “best” deal for the Miami Heat. He IS the Miami Heat. The best deal for the franchise is the best deal for Pat Riley.

Misconception #2 Jimmy Butler REALLY does Not Care

The idea that Jimmy Butler is playing some type of three dimensional trade demand chess also doesn’t equate with history. I don’t want to go into into his much covered hard scrabble up bringing. This is simple human behavior 101.

Jimmy wants to get paid. Jimmy didn’t get paid, Jimmy wants out. Much has been made about where he wants or doesn’t want to play. Whatever you think of the veracity of the leaks. It’s hard to say it’s been consistent. I believe it’s agent driven (this will be important later) The inconsistency lies in the fact that when the cards are on the table. Jimmy Butler will ultimately play where he can get paid.

Legacy, joy (his words), a team he can win with. Like Riley, I don’t think any of these really matter to Jimmy Butler. He worked his way out of three different franchises that had winning (to an extent) pedigrees. Personalities played a role in that. However let’s be real. He wanted more respect than Derick Rose, Karl Anthony-Towns, and Joel Embiid. In American capitalism, respect is money. He didn’t get it so he bounced.

The Heat have chosen to build around Bam Adebayo, so it’s time to bounce again. While his agent tries to guide the process. Jimmy Butler is just operating on the raw emotion that has gotten him to this point. Reflective Jimmy Butler conversing with his agent might care. Basketball Jimmy Butler snaps and says he will “play for 29 other teams”. I think we know what shoulder sitting angel will win that battle.

the Conclusion

The tale as old as time. The immovable object meets the unstoppable force. How will it end? For the reasons listed above I don’t think it will end in Phoenix. It might be the best deal for for both parties. That doesn’t mean it will get done. It’s complicated and other forces (Beal, other teams) hold the cards. This will end one of two ways

Riley holds on to butler

Sure seems far fetched. Butler, his agent, and the Player’s Union would really hate it. However don’t look past this recent Riley statement from the aforementioned Dan Le Batard Show.

There’s a difference, be who you want to be, but in one of the great biblical terms, render onto Caesar you know what is his…. As players, they have to render unto the Heat really what is theirs too, and while they go out there and they do all these other things, you can’t short cut it with us. I’ve actually explained this to the players is that while you’re under contract with us, you do owe us something. Your collection bargaining contact says that. So don’t ever take that lightly and we have a very cooperative group of people.”

Wow, I know it’s long. I kept it all there for a reason. Dude is quoting the… checks notes… the BIBLE!! He is referencing…. Caesar!! He is 100% correct. However this sure sounds like an octogenarian chomping on his cigar at his dock in Biscayne Bay. He has no problem fining, suspending, and calling Jimmy Butler’s bluff.

For the record. I don’t think this will happen. However that quote certainly puts it on the table. The more likely outcome is the…

the “Pack Your Bags” Trade

I’ll keep it simple and quick. Pat Riley gets tired of waiting for all the parties involved. He then calls up the eternally “all in” Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors. They offer him a poo platter that works under the new salary constraints. Riley thinks about it for ten minutes. Says yes, then takes a ride on his boat.

Is it a good deal for Miami? Once again that is not the point. It rids of them Butler. Believe it or not. Statistically it makes them a little better. Bruce Brown is player with a championship pedigree on an expiring contract. He played college ball in Miami as well. Perhaps he fits into “Heat Culture” and stays on a bargain deal.

Kelly Olynyk is relatively cheap, has experience in Miami, and stretches the floor. Ochai Agbaji is a former first round pick who won a national championship at Kansas. Sounds like another player whose development has stalled and might be better with the Heat. Picks? The Raptors do have an extra first from Indiana due to the Pascal Siakam trade. Maybe they throw one or two in. I don’t think it would be a deal breaker for the Heat.

Butler’s side— he probably won’t like it much. However his agent Bernie Lee is based in Toronto. Maybe that helps or it hurts. Ultimately if Toronto agrees to pay him, I think Butler will learn to love Canada.

For Toronto, could Butler wreck and destroy their seas… They are currently 12-32 with their expensive young core already locked up on long term deals. This is the Kawhi Leonard Hail Mary—Part 2. Maybe it works, if doesn’t you let him walk. You can use his 52 million option as a trade chip to get back some value on what little you gave up.

All parties end up where they are presently going. Toronto to the lottery. Miami, possibly an early round playoff exit. Jimmy Butler to an uncertain free agency. Pat Riley to the beach to count his rings.

No franchises or championships altered. However an interesting case study into two of the more pugnacious and stubborn personalities in recent league history. Could be interesting run up to February 6th.