The Labyrinth of Lions Draft Logic

I purposely waited until Sunday night to put this up. Just in case the Lions had some trick up their sleeves. As the weekend has shown. I should have just joined the masses on Thursday night.

Old man Webster defines a labyrinth as “a complicated irregular network of passages or paths in which it is difficult to find one’s way; a maze”. Before Thursday night I primarily thought of it as really strange old Jim Henson movie. After this weekends events. It seems fitting to one of the more unique draft strategies employed in quite some time

Let’s establish one ground rule first. I am not beholden to the draft industrial complex. This year— maybe more than other years. It was just one big misinformation mill. The Texans supposedly liked Tyree Wilson. They had two chances to take him and passed. Will Levis was rising and was the Colts guy? He wasn’t anybody’s guy. CJ Stroud slipping? This screed will not be solely based on rankings or somebody’s else’s mock. It will be based on another challenging word that begins with L— Logic.

Logic Point #1: Get the Best Player

Seems simple enough. Let’s not make this personal. I’ll be rooting for Jahmyr Gibbs. Could be a good player. That being said I would like to see some type of evidence. Any type of evidence— that he is in the same prospect category as Bijan Robinson.

Bijan Robinson has always been the top ranked running back. In any and every setting. High school, college, this draft class. He has gone wire to wire as the top guy. That is really hard to do. Jahmyr Gibbs was pretty good himself. Same graduating class. However unlike Robinson he was a four star prospect that began his career at Georgia Tech. You can scoff at recruiting rankings all you want. Before you do though. Just scan through the 2020 recruiting rankings. They are fairly predictive of college success and accurate draft placement.

Robinson ran for over 3,400 rushing yards and an unheard of average of six yards a carry in his career. Did this for two different head coaches and playing with multiple quarterbacks. He was almost always the focus of the opposing defense and still put up video game numbers.

Gibbs toiled at a less than ideal situation at Georgia Tech. However the narrative crafters would have you think he blossomed after his transfer to Alabama. Partially true but the numbers don’t lie. He split carries and didn’t crack the 1,000 yard mark. In fact didn’t break that mark once during his entire college career. Was he the focus of the opposing defense this past year? Did you happen to see who went #1 overall?

By every available measurement. Robinson was simply better. Statistics, Bijan by a mile. Winning, Bijan—the Tech years ding Gibbs. Physical measurements, Bijan is bigger and tested better. They even have a head to head matchup. While Alabama won the game and Robinson didn’t go off. Gibbs was not a factor in that contest. Gibbs is slightly faster in the 40. That being said. Dan Campbell doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy too focused on a stop watch. The fact is Robinson was the better prospect and he was there for the taking. Which leads to the next point….

Logic Point #2: Get Equal Trade Value

I’m not going to bore you with the numbers behind the draft value chart. Let’s just break it down like this. Say you were to buy a car from a dealership. As you walk in you hear the end of a dealers conversation with a previous customer. He sold that customer a 2022 Chevy Silverado for $34,000. Imagine your luck. You are looking for the same thing. You head to the exact same dealer. However he quotes you a different higher price. When you inquire why. He talks about the minor differences in your particular car.

In this scenario the dealer is the Arizona Cardinals. You know exactly the price to move from up from #12 to #3 in this years draft. They set the price when they took a high second rounder (#33) AND and a first and third round pick in next years draft from the Texans. So what would be your response when that same Arizona squad calls and wants to move back up? Well you already know they have an extra first and third next year. That might be a good place to start.

Nope we’ll gladly move down for nearly an identical second rounder (#34) and…. wait for it…. a fifth round pick. Well I guess it’s not exactly the same— hold on I just saw some more fine print on the sticker. The Lions— that’s right the Lions are sending a third round pick to Arizona in the deal. Why is the seller including the higher secondary pick? Using market principles this makes no sense. We are talking about the difference between picks #3 and #6. Three measly spots?

Returning to our opening scenario. You wouldn’t have bought a similar Silverado for $40,000. You would have walked off the lot. Even felt insulted. You just saw the previous price. Brad Holmes should have played hardball and hung up the phone. It would have been the logical thing to do.

Logic Point #3: The Running Back/ Middle Linebacker Dilemma

Fortunately for you the reader. This point won’t take as long as the first two. The emerging 21st century draft consensus is you should not take a running back or middle linebacker in the first round. Just too risky with too many injuries. Fill those positions in the middle rounds. This is how most NFL teams operate. Right or wrong obviously the Lions don’t prescribe to that theory.

Let’s Enter the Labyrinth

What are we left with? Let’s return to our definition from the beginning (passages, paths, maze etc) and play America’s favorite game Lions Labyrinth. Our characters will be you the average fan, an ominous yet familiar voice, and our main character the……. Labyrinth

Door #1 “Welcome to the Labyrinth” says the ominous voice. You enter the war room. The door shuts behind you. You are given a nice and simple task to start things off. Take the best available player. You see the door marked “Bijan” and begin to reach for the knob until…. BAM!! A trap door opens and you are in the….

Tunnel of Trade Value: You speed by the haul of picks going to Cardinals in the opposite direction. From some reason Christian Gonzales is falling in the tunnel with you. When you come to a screeching halt. A few morsels from the Cardinals fall your way. You wonder “is this all I get for my trouble of falling down the trade value tunnel? The ominous voice declares “yes, it was the best deal we could get.” You are confused as to how the voice read your mind. You wait for feels like an eternity before a door appears.

Door #2: The door simply says Gibbs. Who is Gibbs? You wonder shouldn’t we take just Iowa’s Lucas Van Ness? Put him opposite of Hutch. Two Big 10 pass rushers makes sense. Or that Gonzales guy who was just with you. He could replace Jeff Okudah? The ominous voice thunders again “no we need an offensive playmaker, Gibbs is the pick.”Then why didn’t we just take Bij…. “No questions just open door.” This mind reading is getting creepy. You open the door. The Gibbs room is a nice serviceable space. But nothing special. For some reason that Gonzales guy just keeps following you around. Van Ness passes you with two other players in Iowa jerseys. Then a passageway opens and you come upon to two more doors with nothing written on them.

Door #3 and Door #4: Gonzales enters door #3 and you feel happy for him. He was one of the best corners in the draft. Too bad he is falling down the board. The guy with Van Ness enters door #4. All of a sudden names magically appear on the doors. You realize you are now at pick #18. Door #3 says Gonzales. Door #4 says Campbell MLB. Who is Campbell MLB? Are we drafting our head coach? A professional baseball player? The ominous voice returns. “We a need a defensive playmaker now.” That’s simple enough and you begin to head towards the Gonzales door. Until….

The Evil Empire Strikes: A mighty wind begins to blow. It pushes you towards the Campbell door. Out the corner of your eye you see a familiar face. It’s Bill Belichick. However something doesn’t look quite right about him. What is it? You gaze harder. Wait he has a huge smile on his face. He’s even laughing as he enters the Christian Gonzales door. He never smiles or laughs. Suddenly you are thrust inside the Campbell MLB door. You realize now what the strange words meant. Jack Campbell is a middle linebacker from Iowa. You are extremely confused and decide now is the time to address that ominous yet familiar voice.

Average Lions Fan: I thought we needed a defensive playmaker?
Ominous Voice: We do and we LOVE the Iowa defense. Terrible offense though.
Average Lions Fan: Well if you love the Hawkeye defense. You could have taken Van Ness at #12, Gibbs would have still been here at #18. Then you could have drafted this Campbell guy with the horde of second round picks you have…… a thud cuts you off followed by dead SILENCE
Ominous Voice: Oh so we have a smart one here. Looked at a few mock drafts and think you know more than…..
Average Lions Fan: Well that Belichick guy was smiling, even laughing that we passed on Gonzales. I think he is pretty savvy…… 

You have pushed it too far. The room goes completely black and you are violently transported to another set of foreboding doors. The voice informs you that this next decision will be your last chance. If you answer incorrectly you will banished forever into the bowels of the Labyrinth. Wandering aimlessly searching for a way out. Constantly pursued by Chris Speilman.

The Crucial Decision Door #5 and Door #6: Door #5 reads Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame. Door #6 reads Sam LaPorta TE Iowa. You begin to sweat profusely. So much rides on this decision. Mayer is the top rated tight end in the draft. You can’t believe he is still on the board. You have never really heard of this LaPorta guy. But this feels like a trick question. The voice did say the Iowa offense was terrible. Mayer played and starred at Notre Dame. I mean they made the playoff with him. The Lions also recently traded TJ Hockenson. Maybe they don’t like Iowa tight ends? However George Kittle was a fifth round pick out of Iowa. What if this LaPorta guy is the next Kittle. Oh decisions…. Then you remember the third Hawkeye with Jack Campbell earlier. That is your deciding clue. You swallow hard and move towards Door #6. You will go with LaPorta.

As you turn the knob. Light fills the room. Music begins to play. You have chosen correctly. What follows next is a whirlwind. You begin to move briskly through the maze. The Brian Branch decision was simple and easy. You are beginning to enjoy this game. You suddenly come to a screeching halt. You are now in a cathedral sized room with two gigantic doors. The ominous voice returns.

Ominous Voice: “Your journey is like last years Lions squad. After a horrible start full of self inflicted wounds. You have recovered nicely. Now you face your Lambeau moment. One more decision. Answer correctly and you enter the inner sanctum. You will see the master plan and it will all make sense. An incorrect answer will lead to an endless loop of watching Joey Harrington career highlights.”

The Final Decision Door #7 and Door #8: On gigantic Door #7. There only appears one word—DEPTH. Wow not much to work with there. However Door #8 is loaded with words that barely fit on the grand facade. It looks like Martin Luther’s 95 Theses. It declares:

“Sacrifice draft capital to move up in the draft. Use said draft pick to select a quarterback. A quarterback you do not need. A 25 year old prospect who was completely off the draft radar before this year. Furthermore you do not expect him to play next year because he has a torn ACL. Beyond that he thrived in a high octane offense with little history of producing NFL starters…

It continued on from there but why pile on. At the beginning of this game you would have easily selected Door #7. It is the logical choice. However you have cracked the Lions Logic code. You confidently stride towards Door #8 and……

The Inner Sanctum: You have chosen correctly. The door swings open and you are in the hall of greatness. You embrace Hendon Hooker. You now see the face behind the voice. It’s a smiling Wayne Fontes? I guess it wasn’t that ominous. ALL the legends are there. It’s kind of….. sparse. There is Lomas Brown. There is….well you’re not sure who most of these people are. You ask Coach Fontes where Barry Sanders is? “He’s not here”is the terse response. What about Calvin Johnson? The room goes quiet. Coach Fontes changes the subject quickly.

After worrying briefly about banishment. You see a sign at top of the room and finally it ALL begins to make sense. It simply reads:

The 89th NFL Draft April 25-27 2024 Downtown Detroit

You have found your eureka moment. The Lions host the draft next year. They don’t want to win next year. They want to have first pick in front of their own crowd. What a way rejuvenate the long suffering fan base. Coach Fontes gives you that knowing nod and the glimmer in his eyes that you grew up rooting for. You can’t hold it in any longer and you want end your journey on a dramatic note. So you blurt out.

“With the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. YOUR Detroit Lions select Caleb Willia….

The room goes quiet again. You quickly recover…

“The Detroit Lions have traded back with the Minnesota Vikings and are going to hope Drake Maye is still on the board”

The room erupts in applause. Coach Fontes gives a wink and you know you have finally conquered… The Lions Labyrinth.