the pistons real Dilemma

This isn’t comfortable to write. However it is not necessarily breaking news. Nor does it require sophisticated statistical analysis. The Detroit Pistons are really bad. Not just really bad. Historically bad. Trending towards one of worst records in 82 game NBA history (the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats stink fest came in a strike shortened season)

The Pistons don’t have any of the excuses that Bobcats (yes kids this was a real team, it’s confusing I know) team had. The Pistons had a full offseason with a respected and financially empowered head coach. They are loaded up with eight lottery picks. Five of those eight were selected in the top five. Say what you want about a “bust” rate. However you can’t say these Pistons are bereft of talent.

The Bobcats featured a rookie in Kemba Walker (#9 pick) and a bunch of other stuff. He was actually their second first round pick as the Bobcats took Bismack Biyombo at #7. Their leading scorer was Gerald Henderson. As you can see, this was not a team brimming with top level talent. Paul Silas was relieved of his duties following the season. It was the venerated coach’s last head job. No one was rewarded for producing such a substandard product.

That is the Pistons real dilemma. How do they move forward? How do you hold an entire organization accountable for being so awful under the present circumstances? This will never be a space where I call for people to lose their jobs. If we are being honest. Can anyone see a world where Monty Williams is let go less than one year into six year 78 million dollar deal? I don’t. You could make a case for front office changes. However is removing Troy Weaver really going to impact the on court performance in the next year?

So what do you do if you are Tom Gores? We are approaching one of the worst drafts in recent memory. It’s thin, even at the top. The Pistons should have ample cap space once again. However there is virtually no free agent class to speak of. The tantalizing names (George, Maxey) will not leave their current situations to play for one of the worst teams in NBA history.

This is bleak. So bleak that there is only one option. A option that seems crazy on its surface. You have to strongly consider trading Cade Cunningham. I can hear the naysayers. Why would the Pistons consider trading what is easily their best player?

Simple, the reality of the league’s economics. This summer Detroit will be facing at a 200 million dollar decision. That is roughly the number that Anthony Edwards extended himself for with the Timberwolves this past summer. I’m not going to get into collective bargaining (CBA) minutia. However that is hypothetically what Cade Cunningham could seek in his first extension— this summer. His agent wouldn’t be doing his job properly if he didn’t.

Beyond the finances, the organization needs to take a hard look at the on court performance. Has Cunningham showed anything that gives you confidence that he can be the cornerstone of a winning franchise? If your answer is yes, there is one giant reality staring you in the face. Once again, in his third year. Cunningham is leading one the worst teams in NBA history. It’s hard for me to reconcile the reputation with that point.

He is above average playmaker with good size. However he doesn’t have the defensive upside of Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes. He does not possess the explosive athleticism of Jalen Green or even Jalen Suggs. If you are not a fan of the eye test or on court won/loss performance. The Ringer’s Zach Kram produced a detailed and stinging indictment of Cunningham’s advanced statistics. You can read it here https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/11/20/23968151/cade-cunningham-detroit-pistons-breakout-advanced-stats

Like the Pistons record it paints a very bleak picture. Yes, there are many more problems than just Cade Cunningham on the Pistons ill fitting roster. However he is the only one due a 200 million dollar extension. Additionally in light of the putrid team performance. He might be the only player on this list with any significant trade value. Once again, while trying to avoid the CBA fine print. Isaiah Stewart’s recent extension gives a him “poison pill” provision. Making him to difficult to trade. Complicating the market for the only other player who could net a modicum of a return.

An extension for Cunningham this summer would carry the same “poison pill”. Making him equally, if not more difficult to trade. As uncomfortable as it may be to talk about players in these terms. That is the space we live in. Cade Cunningham is the definition of a “distressed asset.” A good player who still has some resonant value around the league. With every loss, and there will be plenty more. That value only declines. A mega money extension will quickly evaporate what is left of that value the moment it is signed. NOW is the time to trade Cunningham.

I will acknowledge that is not as easy as it sounds. It takes two to tango. I’ll provide a quick overview of possible trade options. Before settling on the sweet spot that the team should pursue.

Oklahoma City: With his connection to the area and the Thunder’s treasure trove of picks. This makes sense on the surface. However Cunningham’s skill set would be redundant with the Thunder’s lineup. Sam Presti and company would say no quickly.

Atlanta: Could Trae Young and Cunningham share a backcourt— maybe? It could be a slightly better fit than OKC. Would the Pistons be intrigued by Dejounte Murray, a young piece, and a pick? Once again possibly. However I think after flirting for a few minutes. Both sides say no.

Dallas, San Antonio, and even Houston: Cade is a Texas guy, so I’ll just lump these three together. Eliminating the first two are easy. Dallas doesn’t have the players or picks to start a conversation. Personally I wouldn’t want anyone from San Antonio (excluding Victor of course) They are nearly as bad as the Pistons. Houston could create an intriguing package. The question is do they want to? Unlike Detroit, their development curve is pointed up. They might think about it for a minute. But they would eventually say no as well.

We have just eliminated a sixth of the league. Lop off the title contenders who don’t want to upset the apple cart and that word appears again. It’s getting bleak out there. However there is one situation that makes sense. You need a bold GM who is willing to buck convention. It would help if his team wasn’t very good and featured a young cheap All-Star. We’ll throw in said GM’s history of of hoarding playmaking wings with size. Ladies and gentlemen….. Danny Ainge.

History has shown dealing with Danny Ainge is neither easy or necessarily fruitful. However he has Lauri Markkanen. Is the 26 year old Finnish All Star going to fix the long litany of Piston problems? In a word no. What Markkanen does though is provide what Detroit needs badly. He can shoot the spit out of the basketball.

While he is a 7 footer (not another one) He provides positional versatility. Having prior success playing the three in Cleveland’s super sized lineups. He is going to be owed a significant pay raise from current below market deal. However would you rather give 200 million dollars to a player with Markkanen’s resume or Cunningham’s? No slight to Cade, but Markkanen is the easy answer.

Which begs the most difficult question. Would Ainge say yes? Of course not. At least not initially. He will ask for picks. The Pistons should refuse. Then if he doesn’t budge. Give him this year’s first. Why not, this draft stinks. Put a top 3 protection on it. Like an addict, Ainge won’t turn that down. He can’t resist. This type of draft was built for him. He loves unearthing foreign or unknown prospects.

How will it look? It is pretty simple and straightforward. Just a straight up old school challenge trade.

Troy Weaver and Ainge can play around with the picks. If Utah wants more than one. Detroit can start poking around for a few of those Minnesota picks down the line. If Utah were to bite. It would be a simple sell for Jazz fans. A Celtics-lite rebuild with their version of Jayson Tatum and picks. They can afford to be patient. They are the only game in town.

Correction: I messed up the Pistons ability to deal a 1st round pick. They can’t trade one until 2029. Doesn’t change my opinion on the trade. If Ainge wants 2029– give it to him. If he wants a horde of future 2nd rounders— Get it done. I apologize for the mistake

For Detroit fans. This year is a wash. It’s on to what decides the fate of most franchises. Pray for the ping pong balls. This draft isn’t very good. However if you can get Isaiah Collier at the top. You have replaced Cade’s spot at the point at a cheaper price. Is there a world where Markkanen’s ability to stretch floor opens up driving lanes for Jaden Ivey and Ausar Thompson? Possibly?The front court will stay solid and young with the sturdy building blocks of Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren.

You also can’t forget about every bad franchise’s favorite wildcard. Good ole Cap Space. Detroit will have a lot of it. What if Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby are just done with Toronto? Once again, Markkanen’s ability to play the three or four would accommodate either player. You still have to squint pretty hard to see a playoff contender. That being said, these pieces seem like a much better fit.

If this doesn’t interest the Piston fan base. Frankly, what’s the alternative. The other option is to simply run it back with one of the worst teams in NBA history. And don’t forget about the accompanying pay raises. Beggars can’t be choosers. No one should be untouchable on a team that is this bad. See what you can get for Cade Cunningham. Perhaps you can catch lightning in bottle and kickstart a rebuild. You can only go up from here— I think.